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Pittsburgh Penguins at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast

FinalTNT, truTV

Away

Penguins

1-0-0

7–0

at

Home

Flyers

0-1-0

PIT 43%PHI 57%

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Xfinity Mobile Arena · TNT, truTV

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.

PHI favored PIT favored7 scoring plays
P1P2P3PHI50%PIT

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Penguins
Flyers

    Scoring summary

    • P316:37Egor Chinakhov Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Erik Karlsson (1), Rickard Rakell (1)7–0
    • P311:52Nick Robertson Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Filip Hallander (2)6–0
    • P210:23Filip Hallander Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Kaedan Korczak (2), Samuel Girard (2)5–0
    • P27:26Hendrix Lapierre Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Filip Hallander (1), Declan Carlile (1)4–0
    • P25:03Evgeni Malkin Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Hendrix Lapierre (1), Thomas Novak (1)3–0
    • P115:44Ville Koivunen Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Samuel Girard (1), Kaedan Korczak (1)2–0
    • P17:26Nick Robertson Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Kris Letang (1), Sidney Crosby (1)1–0

    Turning points

    The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

    1. P17:26Nick Robertson Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Kris Letang (1), Sidney Crosby (1)PIT 1 – 0 PHI · PIT 43% → 59% +15
    2. P115:44Ville Koivunen Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Samuel Girard (1), Kaedan Korczak (1)PIT 2 – 0 PHI · PIT 61% → 76% +15
    3. P25:03Evgeni Malkin Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Hendrix Lapierre (1), Thomas Novak (1)PIT 3 – 0 PHI · PIT 79% → 90% +11
    4. P27:26Hendrix Lapierre Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Filip Hallander (1), Declan Carlile (1)PIT 4 – 0 PHI · PIT 91% → 97% +6
    5. P210:23Filip Hallander Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Kaedan Korczak (2), Samuel Girard (2)PIT 5 – 0 PHI · PIT 97% → >99% +2

    The pick

    Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

    Flyers 57%

    LeanMiss
    PIT 43%PHI 57%

    Forecast Elo ratings alone

    How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.

    Market
    PHI 57%
    ML PIT +124 / PHI -148
    Pre-line forecast
    PHI 53%
    Elo + market-implied
    Elo ratings
    PHI 55%
    Ratings vs. market
    −2.3 pts
    PHI: Elo 54.9%, market 57.2%
    Fair odds
    PHI -134
    PIT +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
    Pregame projection
    PIT 3.0 – 3.5 PHI
    Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5

    How the number is built

    Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

    FactorPITPHIWhy
    Team rating15011498Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
    Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
    Starting goalies+2+4PIT: Arturs Silovs: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) · PHI: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts)
    Elo ratingsPHI +34 EloPHI 54.9%
    Market-implied ratingsPHI 52.2%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
    Pre-line forecastPHI 52.7%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
    ForecastPHI 57.2%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

    Tale of the tape

    Last season (2025-26) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

    Try another venue →
    Pittsburgh Penguins and Philadelphia Flyers compared, with each team's league rank
    PITStatPHI
    3rd of 323.6Goals scored3.020th of 32
    24th of 323.3Goals allowed3.09th of 32
    10th of 32+0.3Margin+0.115th of 32
    11th of 3251.1%Shot share50.0%16th of 32
    24th of 3289.1%Save percentage89.1%23rd of 32
    16th of 325–5Last 107–32nd of 32
    9th of 3221–19Road vs home20–2121st of 32
    9th of 321503Opponent Elo15036th of 32
    17th of 321501Elo rating149818th of 32

    Rating history

    Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

    PenguinsFlyers
    1400145015001550league averageNovFebMayAugNov

    Recent form

    Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

    Against the line

    How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

    Last season (2025-26)PITPHI
    Puck line49–3958–34
    Last 103–76–4
    Favorite13–2311–16
    Underdog36–1647–18
    Overs–unders50–3844–48
    Overs–unders, last 105–52–8

    Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

    Head to head

    PIT 8–10 PHI in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 18.