Washington Capitals at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Alex TuchGoals2
- Pierre-Luc DuboisAssists2
- Alex TuchPoints2
Hurricanes- Sebastian AhoGoals1
- William CarrierAssists1
- Sebastian AhoPoints1
Scoring summary
- P310:50Logan Stankoven Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: K'Andre Miller (1), William Carrier (1)5–2
- P216:58Ryan Leonard Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (2), Jakob Chychrun (1)5–1
- P216:50Sebastian Aho Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (1), Jackson Blake (1)4–1
- P21:36Jakob Chychrun Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (1)4–0
- P114:23Alex Tuch Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Pierre-Luc Dubois (2), Tom Wilson (1)3–0
- P111:33Cole Hutson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Ilya Protas (1), Aliaksei Protas (1)2–0
- P16:33Alex Tuch Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Pierre-Luc Dubois (1), Alex Ovechkin (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:33Alex Tuch Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Pierre-Luc Dubois (1), Alex Ovechkin (1)WSH 1 – 0 CAR · WSH 43% → 59% +15WSH 43% → 59%+15 pts
- P111:33Cole Hutson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Ilya Protas (1), Aliaksei Protas (1)WSH 2 – 0 CAR · WSH 60% → 74% +15WSH 60% → 74%+15 pts
- P114:23Alex Tuch Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Pierre-Luc Dubois (2), Tom Wilson (1)WSH 3 – 0 CAR · WSH 75% → 86% +11WSH 75% → 86%+11 pts
- P21:36Jakob Chychrun Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (1)WSH 4 – 0 CAR · WSH 89% → 95% +6WSH 89% → 95%+6 pts
- P216:50Sebastian Aho Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (1), Jackson Blake (1)WSH 4 – 1 CAR · CAR 1% → 5% +4CAR 1% → 5%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 57%
- ML WSH +124 / CAR -148
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.1 pts
- CAR: Elo 63.3%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- CAR -134
- WSH +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.0 – 3.5 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1579 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +7 | WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · CAR: Brandon Bussi: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +94 Elo | CAR 63.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 56.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025-26) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.62nd of 32 |
| 10th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.94th of 32 |
| 12th of 32+0.2 | Margin | +0.73rd of 32 |
| 17th of 3249.9% | Shot share | 57.3%1st of 32 |
| 5th of 3290.3% | Save percentage | 88.6%26th of 32 |
| 1st of 328–2 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 21st of 3218–23 | Road vs home | 29–121st of 32 |
| 16th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 149920th of 32 |
| 10th of 321521 | Elo rating | 15791st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  WSH |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 45–37 | 43–58 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 24–28 | 36–56 |
| Underdog | 21–9 | 7–2 |
| Overs–unders | 37–45 | 52–49 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 7–9 CAR in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 16.
- Jan 31CAR 3 @ WSH 4Picked CAR 63%Miss
- Dec 11CAR 3 @ WSH 2Picked CAR 51%Hit
- Nov 11WSH 4 @ CAR 1Picked CAR 57%Miss
- May 15CAR 3 @ WSH 1PlayoffsPicked CAR 59%Hit
- May 12WSH 2 @ CAR 5PlayoffsPicked CAR 68%Hit
- May 10WSH 0 @ CAR 4PlayoffsPicked CAR 68%Hit
- May 8CAR 1 @ WSH 3PlayoffsPicked CAR 58%Miss
- May 6CAR 2 @ WSH 1PlayoffsPicked CAR 56%Hit