Vegas Golden Knights at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Pavel DorofeyevGoals2
- Jack EichelAssists2
- Pavel DorofeyevPoints2
Hurricanes- Andrei SvechnikovGoals2
- Nikolaj EhlersAssists3
- Nikolaj EhlersPoints3
Scoring summary
- P313:49Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Shea Theodore (12), Jack Eichel (20)2–4
- P311:08Andrei Svechnikov Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (10), Shayne Gostisbehere (9)1–4
- P217:51Sebastian Aho Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Sean Walker (3), Jordan Martinook (3)1–3
- P211:58Andrei Svechnikov Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (8), Nikolaj Ehlers (9)1–2
- P111:46Jordan Staal Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (8), Seth Jarvis (7)1–1
- P16:52Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (19), Tomas Hertl (9)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:52Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (19), Tomas Hertl (9)VGK 1 – 0 CAR · VGK 42% → 58% +15VGK 42% → 58%+15 pts
- P111:46Jordan Staal Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (8), Seth Jarvis (7)VGK 1 – 1 CAR · CAR 41% → 57% +16CAR 41% → 57%+16 pts
- P211:58Andrei Svechnikov Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (8), Nikolaj Ehlers (9)VGK 1 – 2 CAR · CAR 56% → 75% +19CAR 56% → 75%+19 pts
- P217:51Sebastian Aho Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Sean Walker (3), Jordan Martinook (3)VGK 1 – 3 CAR · CAR 77% → 91% +14CAR 77% → 91%+14 pts
- P311:08Andrei Svechnikov Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (10), Shayne Gostisbehere (9)VGK 1 – 4 CAR · CAR 98% → >99% +2CAR 98% → >99%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 58%
- ML VGK +130 / CAR -155
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.9 pts
- CAR: Elo 63.2%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- CAR -140
- VGK +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 3.0 – 3.5 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1546 | 1603 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +2 | VGK: Carter Hart: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) · CAR: Brandon Bussi: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +94 Elo | CAR 63.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 57.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 58.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.62nd of 32 |
| 13th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.94th of 32 |
| 13th of 32+0.2 | Margin | +0.73rd of 32 |
| 3rd of 3254.3% | Shot share | 57.3%1st of 32 |
| 28th of 3288.4% | Save percentage | 88.6%26th of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 18th of 3219–22 | Road vs home | 29–121st of 32 |
| 32nd of 321494 | Opponent Elo | 149821st of 32 |
| 6th of 321546 | Elo rating | 16031st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VGK |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 46–56 | 41–58 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 23–53 | 34–56 |
| Underdog | 23–3 | 7–2 |
| Overs–unders | 52–50 | 52–47 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VGK 4–6 CAR in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.
- Jun 9CAR 5 @ VGK 3PlayoffsPicked CAR 51%Hit
- Jun 6CAR 4 @ VGK 5PlayoffsPicked VGK 50%Hit
- Jun 4VGK 3 @ CAR 4PlayoffsPicked CAR 59%Hit
- Jun 2VGK 5 @ CAR 4PlayoffsPicked CAR 59%Miss
- Oct 28VGK 6 @ CAR 3Picked CAR 60%Miss
- Oct 20CAR 1 @ VGK 4Picked CAR 51%Miss
- Jan 17VGK 2 @ CAR 3Picked CAR 57%Hit
- Nov 11CAR 5 @ VGK 2Picked CAR 57%Hit