Carolina Hurricanes at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Jordan StaalGoals1
- Sebastian AhoAssists2
- Jordan StaalPoints2
Golden Knights- Mitch MarnerGoals3
- Brayden McNabbAssists2
- Mitch MarnerPoints4
Scoring summary
- 2OT5:38Shea Theodore Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Brayden McNabb (8), Brett Howden (4)4–5
- P318:18Andrei Svechnikov Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Staal (4), Sebastian Aho (6)4–4
- P37:42Jordan Staal Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Jaccob Slavin (4), Eric Robinson (5)3–4
- P37:29Taylor Hall Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (5), Jackson Blake (11)2–4
- P37:03Jordan Martinook Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (6), Logan Stankoven (4)1–4
- P216:52Mitch Marner Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Tomas Hertl (8)0–4
- P214:32Mitch Marner Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Brayden McNabb (7)0–3
- P210:42Mitch Marner Goal (8) Backhand, assists: William Karlsson (5), Shea Theodore (10)0–2
- P210:26Tomas Hertl Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (18), Mitch Marner (18)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P210:26Tomas Hertl Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (18), Mitch Marner (18)CAR 0 – 1 VGK · VGK 50% → 70% +20VGK 50% → 70%+20 pts
- P210:42Mitch Marner Goal (8) Backhand, assists: William Karlsson (5), Shea Theodore (10)CAR 0 – 2 VGK · VGK 70% → 85% +15VGK 70% → 85%+15 pts
- P37:42Jordan Staal Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Jaccob Slavin (4), Eric Robinson (5)CAR 3 – 4 VGK · CAR 5% → 21% +16CAR 5% → 21%+16 pts
- P318:18Andrei Svechnikov Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Staal (4), Sebastian Aho (6)CAR 4 – 4 VGK · CAR 2% → 50% +48CAR 2% → 50%+48 pts
- 2OT5:38Shea Theodore Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Brayden McNabb (8), Brett Howden (4)CAR 4 – 5 VGK · VGK 50% → 100% +50VGK 50% → 100%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 50%
- ML CAR -108 / VGK -112
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.1 pts
- VGK: Elo 47.4%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- VGK -102
- CAR +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 2.7 – 2.8 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1602 | 1547 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +3 | CAR: Frederik Andersen: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · VGK: Carter Hart: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +18 Elo | CAR 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 51.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 50.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 323.6 | Goals scored | 3.214th of 32 |
| 4th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.013th of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+0.7 | Margin | +0.213th of 32 |
| 1st of 3257.3% | Shot share | 54.3%3rd of 32 |
| 26th of 3288.6% | Save percentage | 88.4%28th of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 3224–17 | Road vs home | 20–2121st of 32 |
| 21st of 321499 | Opponent Elo | 149332nd of 32 |
| 1st of 321602 | Elo rating | 15476th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CAR |  VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 40–57 | 45–55 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 33–55 | 23–53 |
| Underdog | 7–2 | 22–2 |
| Overs–unders | 50–47 | 50–50 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CAR 5–3 VGK in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.
- Jun 4VGK 3 @ CAR 4PlayoffsPicked CAR 59%Hit
- Jun 2VGK 5 @ CAR 4PlayoffsPicked CAR 59%Miss
- Oct 28VGK 6 @ CAR 3Picked CAR 60%Miss
- Oct 20CAR 1 @ VGK 4Picked CAR 51%Miss
- Jan 17VGK 2 @ CAR 3Picked CAR 57%Hit
- Nov 11CAR 5 @ VGK 2Picked CAR 57%Hit
- Feb 17CAR 3 @ VGK 1Picked VGK 56%Miss
- Dec 19VGK 3 @ CAR 6Picked CAR 55%Hit