Vegas Golden Knights at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Ivan BarbashevGoals2
- Pavel DorofeyevAssists2
- Ivan BarbashevPoints3
Avalanche- Ross ColtonGoals1
- Brent BurnsAssists1
- Ross ColtonPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:57Ivan Barbashev Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Andersson (5)3–1
- P311:22Ivan Barbashev Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (16), Pavel Dorofeyev (4)2–1
- P39:15Jack Eichel Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Dorofeyev (3), Ivan Barbashev (7)1–1
- P116:59Ross Colton Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Brent Burns (4), Nazem Kadri (5)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P116:59Ross Colton Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Brent Burns (4), Nazem Kadri (5)VGK 0 – 1 COL · COL 61% → 76% +15COL 61% → 76%+15 pts
- P39:15Jack Eichel Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Dorofeyev (3), Ivan Barbashev (7)VGK 1 – 1 COL · VGK 16% → 44% +29VGK 16% → 44%+29 pts
- P311:22Ivan Barbashev Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (16), Pavel Dorofeyev (4)VGK 2 – 1 COL · VGK 45% → 80% +35VGK 45% → 80%+35 pts
- P318:57Ivan Barbashev Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Andersson (5)VGK 3 – 1 COL · VGK >99% → >99% +0VGK >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- COL 63%
- ML VGK +160 / COL -192
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- COL: Elo 64.0%, market 63.1%
- Fair odds
- COL -171
- VGK +171 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 2.9 – 3.6 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1600 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +4 | VGK: Carter Hart: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) · COL: Scott Wedgewood: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +100 Elo | COL 64.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 61.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 62.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 63.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.71st of 32 |
| 13th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.51st of 32 |
| 13th of 32+0.2 | Margin | +1.21st of 32 |
| 3rd of 3254.3% | Shot share | 56.3%2nd of 32 |
| 28th of 3288.4% | Save percentage | 91.4%1st of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 18th of 3219–22 | Road vs home | 26–153rd of 32 |
| 32nd of 321494 | Opponent Elo | 149430th of 32 |
| 8th of 321535 | Elo rating | 16001st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VGK |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 41–54 | 47–45 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 23–52 | 46–45 |
| Underdog | 18–2 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 47–48 | 41–51 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VGK 5–5 COL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 10.