Vegas Golden Knights at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Nic DowdGoals1
- Mitch MarnerAssists1
- Nic DowdPoints1
Avalanche- Valeri NichushkinGoals1
- Ross ColtonAssists1
- Gabriel LandeskogPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:15Nic Dowd Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (15), Rasmus Andersson (4)4–2
- P317:39Gabriel Landeskog Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (7), Devon Toews (7)3–2
- P35:53Valeri Nichushkin Goal (2) Between Legs, assists: Ross Colton (3)3–1
- P31:34Brett Howden Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Ben Hutton (1)3–0
- P215:02Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (12), Tomas Hertl (5)2–0
- P212:29Dylan Coghlan Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Saad (2), Colton Sissons (4)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P212:29Dylan Coghlan Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Saad (2), Colton Sissons (4)VGK 1 – 0 COL · VGK 43% → 64% +21VGK 43% → 64%+21 pts
- P215:02Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (12), Tomas Hertl (5)VGK 2 – 0 COL · VGK 65% → 83% +18VGK 65% → 83%+18 pts
- P31:34Brett Howden Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Ben Hutton (1)VGK 3 – 0 COL · VGK 88% → 97% +9VGK 88% → 97%+9 pts
- P35:53Valeri Nichushkin Goal (2) Between Legs, assists: Ross Colton (3)VGK 3 – 1 COL · COL 2% → 9% +7COL 2% → 9%+7 pts
- P317:39Gabriel Landeskog Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (7), Devon Toews (7)VGK 3 – 2 COL · COL <1% → 4% +4COL <1% → 4%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- COL 61%
- ML VGK +145 / COL -175
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.7 pts
- COL: Elo 65.7%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- COL -156
- VGK +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 2.9 – 3.6 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1605 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | +6 | VGK: Carter Hart: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) · COL: Scott Wedgewood: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +113 Elo | COL 65.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 63.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 63.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.71st of 32 |
| 13th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.51st of 32 |
| 13th of 32+0.2 | Margin | +1.21st of 32 |
| 3rd of 3254.3% | Shot share | 56.3%2nd of 32 |
| 28th of 3288.4% | Save percentage | 91.4%1st of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 18th of 3219–22 | Road vs home | 26–153rd of 32 |
| 31st of 321494 | Opponent Elo | 149430th of 32 |
| 8th of 321529 | Elo rating | 16051st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VGK |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 40–54 | 47–44 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 23–52 | 46–44 |
| Underdog | 17–2 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 47–47 | 41–50 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VGK 4–5 COL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 9.