Anaheim Ducks at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Jansen HarkinsGoals1
- Chris KreiderAssists1
- Jansen HarkinsPoints1
Golden Knights- Mark StoneGoals1
- Shea TheodoreAssists1
- Mark StonePoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:54Mark Stone Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (9), Shea Theodore (3)3–1
- P316:30Jansen Harkins Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–0
- P36:36Leo Carlsson Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Troy Terry (6), Chris Kreider (5)2–0
- P211:23Beckett Sennecke Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jeffrey Viel (1), Ryan Poehling (1)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P211:23Beckett Sennecke Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jeffrey Viel (1), Ryan Poehling (1)ANA 1 – 0 VGK · ANA 44% → 65% +21ANA 44% → 65%+21 pts
- P36:36Leo Carlsson Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Troy Terry (6), Chris Kreider (5)ANA 2 – 0 VGK · ANA 75% → 93% +18ANA 75% → 93%+18 pts
- P316:30Jansen Harkins Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: noneANA 3 – 0 VGK · ANA >99% → >99% +0ANA >99% → >99%+0 pts
- P319:54Mark Stone Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (9), Shea Theodore (3)ANA 3 – 1 VGK · VGK 0% → 0% +0VGK 0% → 0%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 58%
- ML ANA +130 / VGK -155
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.0 pts
- VGK: Elo 62.3%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- VGK -140
- ANA +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 3.0 – 3.5 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +3 | ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · VGK: Carter Hart: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +87 Elo | VGK 62.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 62.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 62.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.214th of 32 |
| 29th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.013th of 32 |
| 19th of 32−0.2 | Margin | +0.213th of 32 |
| 6th of 3252.1% | Shot share | 54.3%3rd of 32 |
| 30th of 3288.3% | Save percentage | 88.4%28th of 32 |
| 27th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 18th of 3219–22 | Road vs home | 20–2121st of 32 |
| 29th of 321495 | Opponent Elo | 149430th of 32 |
| 24th of 321474 | Elo rating | 152510th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ANA |  VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 41–48 | 37–52 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–27 | 22–50 |
| Underdog | 35–21 | 15–2 |
| Overs–unders | 52–37 | 45–44 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ANA 6–6 VGK in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 12.