Vegas Golden Knights at Utah Mammoth, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Mitch MarnerGoals2
- Mitch MarnerAssists1
- Mitch MarnerPoints3
Mammoth- Kailer YamamotoGoals1
- MacKenzie WeegarAssists1
- Kailer YamamotoPoints1
Scoring summary
- P316:24Cole Smith Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: none5–1
- P312:09Mitch Marner Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Shea Theodore (2), Jack Eichel (8)4–1
- P39:39Colton Sissons Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden McNabb (2), Kaedan Korczak (1)3–1
- P37:41Kailer Yamamoto Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Mikhail Sergachev (5), MacKenzie Weegar (3)2–1
- P219:15Mitch Marner Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (4), Noah Hanifin (5)2–0
- P115:02Brett Howden Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (5), Mark Stone (3)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P115:02Brett Howden Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (5), Mark Stone (3)VGK 1 – 0 UTA · VGK 52% → 68% +16VGK 52% → 68%+16 pts
- P219:15Mitch Marner Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (4), Noah Hanifin (5)VGK 2 – 0 UTA · VGK 74% → 90% +16VGK 74% → 90%+16 pts
- P37:41Kailer Yamamoto Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Mikhail Sergachev (5), MacKenzie Weegar (3)VGK 2 – 1 UTA · UTA 5% → 20% +15UTA 5% → 20%+15 pts
- P39:39Colton Sissons Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden McNabb (2), Kaedan Korczak (1)VGK 3 – 1 UTA · VGK 82% → 96% +15VGK 82% → 96%+15 pts
- P312:09Mitch Marner Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Shea Theodore (2), Jack Eichel (8)VGK 4 – 1 UTA · VGK 98% → >99% +2VGK 98% → >99%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 52%
- ML VGK -120 / UTA +100
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.5 pts
- VGK: Elo 45.7%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- VGK -109
- UTA +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 3.3 – 3.2 UTA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | UTA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | −1 | VGK: Carter Hart: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) · UTA: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | UTA +30 Elo | UTA 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTA 50.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.313th of 32 |
| 13th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.94th of 32 |
| 13th of 32+0.2 | Margin | +0.38th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3254.3% | Shot share | 51.4%8th of 32 |
| 28th of 3288.4% | Save percentage | 89.3%21st of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 18th of 3219–22 | Road vs home | 22–1914th of 32 |
| 30th of 321495 | Opponent Elo | 149725th of 32 |
| 10th of 321516 | Elo rating | 151212th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VGK |  UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 35–52 | 41–46 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 20–50 | 20–36 |
| Underdog | 15–2 | 21–10 |
| Overs–unders | 45–42 | 47–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VGK 6–5 UTA in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.
- Apr 29UTA 4 @ VGK 5PlayoffsPicked VGK 59%Hit
- Apr 27VGK 5 @ UTA 4PlayoffsPicked VGK 55%Hit
- Apr 24VGK 2 @ UTA 4PlayoffsPicked VGK 50%Miss
- Apr 21UTA 3 @ VGK 2PlayoffsPicked VGK 57%Miss
- Apr 19UTA 2 @ VGK 4PlayoffsPicked VGK 59%Hit
- Mar 19UTA 4 @ VGK 0Picked VGK 55%Miss
- Nov 24VGK 1 @ UTA 5Picked UTA 50%Hit
- Nov 20VGK 4 @ UTA 1Picked UTA 50%Miss