Utah Mammoth at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mammoth- Dylan GuentherGoals1
- Kailer YamamotoAssists2
- Dylan GuentherPoints2
Golden Knights- Mark StoneGoals1
- Jack EichelAssists2
- Jack EichelPoints2
Scoring summary
- P314:00Logan Cooley Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Guenther (1), Kailer Yamamoto (2)3–2
- P215:58Ivan Barbashev Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Jack Eichel (2)2–2
- P214:56Dylan Guenther Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Kailer Yamamoto (1)2–1
- P116:59MacKenzie Weegar Goal (1) , assists: none1–1
- P111:42Mark Stone Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (1), Mitch Marner (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:42Mark Stone Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (1), Mitch Marner (2)UTA 0 – 1 VGK · VGK 56% → 72% +15VGK 56% → 72%+15 pts
- P116:59MacKenzie Weegar Goal (1) , assists: noneUTA 1 – 1 VGK · UTA 28% → 44% +16UTA 28% → 44%+16 pts
- P214:56Dylan Guenther Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Kailer Yamamoto (1)UTA 2 – 1 VGK · UTA 45% → 67% +22UTA 45% → 67%+22 pts
- P215:58Ivan Barbashev Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Jack Eichel (2)UTA 2 – 2 VGK · VGK 32% → 55% +22VGK 32% → 55%+22 pts
- P314:00Logan Cooley Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Guenther (1), Kailer Yamamoto (2)UTA 3 – 2 VGK · UTA 48% → 86% +39UTA 48% → 86%+39 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 57%
- ML UTA +124 / VGK -148
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.8 pts
- VGK: Elo 56.4%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- VGK -134
- UTA +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTA 3.0 – 3.5 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTA | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +4 | UTA: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · VGK: Carter Hart: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +45 Elo | VGK 56.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 58.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 58.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| UTA | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.214th of 32 |
| 4th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.013th of 32 |
| 8th of 32+0.3 | Margin | +0.213th of 32 |
| 8th of 3251.4% | Shot share | 54.3%3rd of 32 |
| 21st of 3289.3% | Save percentage | 88.4%28th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 10th of 3221–20 | Road vs home | 20–2121st of 32 |
| 24th of 321497 | Opponent Elo | 149530th of 32 |
| 13th of 321511 | Elo rating | 151811th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTA |  VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 37–46 | 35–48 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 20–36 | 20–46 |
| Underdog | 17–10 | 15–2 |
| Overs–unders | 44–39 | 42–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTA 3–4 VGK in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.
