Utah Mammoth at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mammoth- Kevin StenlundGoals1
- Nate SchmidtAssists1
- Kevin StenlundPoints1
Golden Knights- Colton SissonsGoals1
- Noah HanifinAssists2
- Colton SissonsPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:21Ivan Barbashev Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Hanifin (2)2–4
- P37:20Nic Dowd Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Noah Hanifin (1), Colton Sissons (1)2–3
- P35:33Mark Stone Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Tomas Hertl (1), Mitch Marner (1)2–2
- P25:07Kevin Stenlund Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Durzi (1), Ian Cole (1)2–1
- P23:44Colton Sissons Goal (1) Poke, assists: Cole Smith (1), Brayden McNabb (1)1–1
- P119:49Logan Cooley Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Nate Schmidt (1), Lawson Crouse (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:49Logan Cooley Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Nate Schmidt (1), Lawson Crouse (1)UTA 1 – 0 VGK · UTA 42% → 60% +18UTA 42% → 60%+18 pts
- P23:44Colton Sissons Goal (1) Poke, assists: Cole Smith (1), Brayden McNabb (1)UTA 1 – 1 VGK · VGK 39% → 57% +19VGK 39% → 57%+19 pts
- P25:07Kevin Stenlund Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Durzi (1), Ian Cole (1)UTA 2 – 1 VGK · UTA 43% → 62% +19UTA 43% → 62%+19 pts
- P35:33Mark Stone Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Tomas Hertl (1), Mitch Marner (1)UTA 2 – 2 VGK · VGK 27% → 55% +28VGK 27% → 55%+28 pts
- P37:20Nic Dowd Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Noah Hanifin (1), Colton Sissons (1)UTA 2 – 3 VGK · VGK 54% → 82% +27VGK 54% → 82%+27 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 59%
- ML UTA +136 / VGK -162
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.2 pts
- VGK: Elo 55.2%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- VGK -146
- UTA +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTA 2.5 – 3.0 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTA | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +3 | UTA: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · VGK: Carter Hart: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +36 Elo | VGK 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 58.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 57.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| UTA | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.214th of 32 |
| 4th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.013th of 32 |
| 8th of 32+0.3 | Margin | +0.213th of 32 |
| 8th of 3251.4% | Shot share | 54.3%3rd of 32 |
| 21st of 3289.3% | Save percentage | 88.4%28th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 10th of 3221–20 | Road vs home | 20–2121st of 32 |
| 24th of 321497 | Opponent Elo | 149530th of 32 |
| 12th of 321514 | Elo rating | 151411th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTA |  VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 37–45 | 34–48 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 20–36 | 19–46 |
| Underdog | 17–9 | 15–2 |
| Overs–unders | 43–39 | 41–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTA 3–3 VGK in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.
