Seattle Kraken at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Shane WrightGoals1
- Jamie OleksiakAssists1
- Shane WrightPoints1
Golden Knights- Reilly SmithGoals2
- Jack EichelAssists2
- Reilly SmithPoints3
Scoring summary
- P316:36Reilly Smith Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Kaedan Korczak (13), Tomas Hertl (34)1–4
- P312:01Reilly Smith Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Rasmus Andersson (30), Jack Eichel (63)1–3
- P31:23Mitch Marner Goal (24) Tip-In, assists: Brayden McNabb (7), Jack Eichel (62)1–2
- P217:35Shea Theodore Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Reilly Smith (10), Nic Dowd (16)1–1
- P22:24Shane Wright Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Jani Nyman (3), Jamie Oleksiak (10)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P22:24Shane Wright Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Jani Nyman (3), Jamie Oleksiak (10)SEA 1 – 0 VGK · SEA 31% → 49% +18SEA 31% → 49%+18 pts
- P217:35Shea Theodore Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Reilly Smith (10), Nic Dowd (16)SEA 1 – 1 VGK · VGK 41% → 65% +23VGK 41% → 65%+23 pts
- P31:23Mitch Marner Goal (24) Tip-In, assists: Brayden McNabb (7), Jack Eichel (62)SEA 1 – 2 VGK · VGK 64% → 84% +21VGK 64% → 84%+21 pts
- P312:01Reilly Smith Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Rasmus Andersson (30), Jack Eichel (63)SEA 1 – 3 VGK · VGK 89% → 99% +10VGK 89% → 99%+10 pts
- P316:36Reilly Smith Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Kaedan Korczak (13), Tomas Hertl (34)SEA 1 – 4 VGK · VGK >99% → >99% +0VGK >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 73%
- ML SEA +260 / VGK -325
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.6 pts
- VGK: Elo 62.7%, market 73.4%
- Fair odds
- VGK -275
- SEA +275 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 2.5 – 4.0 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1452 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | 0 | SEA: Nikke Kokko: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · VGK: Carter Hart: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +90 Elo | VGK 62.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 70.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 69.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 73.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.214th of 32 |
| 23rd of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.115th of 32 |
| 27th of 32−0.4 | Margin | +0.113th of 32 |
| 29th of 3246.5% | Shot share | 54.3%3rd of 32 |
| 8th of 3290.2% | Save percentage | 88.3%30th of 32 |
| 25th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 29th of 3215–24 | Road vs home | 19–2124th of 32 |
| 27th of 321496 | Opponent Elo | 149630th of 32 |
| 28th of 321452 | Elo rating | 151113th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 47–33 | 33–48 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–7 | 18–46 |
| Underdog | 41–26 | 15–2 |
| Overs–unders | 36–44 | 41–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 5–5 VGK in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.