Los Angeles Kings at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Quinton ByfieldGoals2
- Trevor MooreAssists1
- Quinton ByfieldPoints2
Kraken- Adam LarssonGoals1
- Matty BeniersAssists2
- Matty BeniersPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:58Alex Laferriere Goal (20) Backhand, assists: Joel Edmundson (21)5–3
- P317:33Bobby McMann Goal (29) Snap Shot, assists: Matty Beniers (30), Chandler Stephenson (33)4–3
- P312:29Adrian Kempe Goal (35) Snap Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (25), Trevor Moore (17)4–2
- P38:08Freddy Gaudreau Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Kaapo Kakko (27)3–2
- P31:53Adam Larsson Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Matty Beniers (29), Jaden Schwartz (15)3–1
- P27:13Trevor Moore Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Laferriere (21)3–0
- P113:19Quinton Byfield Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–0
- P12:43Quinton Byfield Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:43Quinton Byfield Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: noneLA 1 – 0 SEA · LA 61% → 74% +13LA 61% → 74%+13 pts
- P113:19Quinton Byfield Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: noneLA 2 – 0 SEA · LA 74% → 86% +11LA 74% → 86%+11 pts
- P27:13Trevor Moore Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Laferriere (21)LA 3 – 0 SEA · LA 88% → 95% +7LA 88% → 95%+7 pts
- P38:08Freddy Gaudreau Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Kaapo Kakko (27)LA 3 – 2 SEA · SEA 4% → 17% +13SEA 4% → 17%+13 pts
- P312:29Adrian Kempe Goal (35) Snap Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (25), Trevor Moore (17)LA 4 – 2 SEA · LA 87% → 98% +11LA 87% → 98%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- LA 61%
- ML LA -175 / SEA +145
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −13.9 pts
- LA: Elo 47.1%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- LA -156
- SEA +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 3.1 – 2.4 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1456 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +17 | LA: Anton Forsberg: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · SEA: Nikke Kokko: team allows 0.42 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +20 Elo | SEA 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 50.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LA 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 2.827th of 32 |
| 10th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.223rd of 32 |
| 24th of 32−0.3 | Margin | −0.425th of 32 |
| 12th of 3250.7% | Shot share | 46.5%29th of 32 |
| 12th of 3289.9% | Save percentage | 90.3%6th of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 32 |
| 14th of 3219–19 | Road vs home | 19–2122nd of 32 |
| 22nd of 321497 | Opponent Elo | 149626th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321484 | Elo rating | 145628th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LA |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 29–50 | 47–32 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 10–39 | 6–7 |
| Underdog | 19–11 | 41–25 |
| Overs–unders | 36–43 | 35–44 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LA 4–6 SEA in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 10.