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Edmonton Oilers at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast

FinalESPN+, KCAL, FanDuel SN SoCal

Away

Oilers

40-30-10

0–1

at

Home

Kings

34-26-19

EDM 48%LA 52%

You didn't pick this one.

crypto.com Arena · ESPN+, KCAL, FanDuel SN SoCal

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each period. Above the line favors LA.

LA75%50%75%EDMStartP1P2Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Oilers

    Scoring summary

    • P17:34Artemi Panarin Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–1

    Turning points

    The play that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

    1. P17:34Artemi Panarin Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: noneEDM 0 – 1 LA · LA 52% → 67% +15

    The pick

    Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

    Kings 52%

    Toss-upHit
    EDM 48%LA 52%

    Forecast Elo ratings alone

    How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.

    Market
    LA 52%
    ML EDM -102 / LA -118
    Pre-line forecast
    LA 51%
    Elo + market-implied
    Elo ratings
    LA 47%
    Ratings vs. market
    −4.3 pts
    LA: Elo 47.4%, market 51.7%
    Fair odds
    LA -107
    EDM +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
    Pregame projection
    EDM 3.2 – 3.3 LA
    Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5

    How the number is built

    Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

    FactorEDMLAWhy
    Team rating15301482Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
    Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
    Starting goalies+60EDM: Connor Ingram: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) · LA: Anton Forsberg: team allows 0.00 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts)
    Elo ratingsEDM +18 EloEDM 52.6%
    Market-implied ratingsLA 51.8%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
    Pre-line forecastLA 51.0%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
    ForecastLA 51.7%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

    Tale of the tape

    This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

    Try another venue →
    Edmonton Oilers and Los Angeles Kings compared, with each team's league rank
    EDMStatLA
    6th of 323.5Goals scored2.828th of 32
    27th of 323.4Goals allowed3.013th of 32
    13th of 32+0.1Margin−0.323rd of 32
    5th of 3252.5%Shot share50.7%12th of 32
    30th of 3288.1%Save percentage89.8%14th of 32
    6th of 326–4Last 105–513th of 32
    17th of 3219–21Road vs home14–2629th of 32
    32nd of 321493Opponent Elo149725th of 32
    9th of 321530Elo rating148223rd of 32

    Rating history

    Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

    OilersKings
    1450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

    Recent form

    Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

    Against the line

    How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

    This seasonEDMLA
    Puck line34–4529–49
    Last 107–33–7
    Favorite24–3910–38
    Underdog10–619–11
    Overs–unders48–3136–42
    Overs–unders, last 105–54–6

    Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

    Head to head

    EDM 13–8 LA in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 21.