St. Louis Blues at Utah Mammoth, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Robert ThomasGoals3
- Dylan HollowayAssists2
- Robert ThomasPoints3
Mammoth- Michael CarconeGoals1
- MacKenzie WeegarAssists2
- MacKenzie WeegarPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:22Robert Thomas Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Jimmy Snuggerud (30), Philip Broberg (28)5–3
- P317:03Logan Mailloux Goal (5) Backhand, assists: none4–3
- P218:52Kailer Yamamoto Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: MacKenzie Weegar (24), Clayton Keller (62)3–3
- P211:07Robert Thomas Goal (24) Tip-In, assists: Cam Fowler (26), Dylan Holloway (29)3–2
- P28:14Robert Thomas Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Holloway (28)2–2
- P20:45Lawson Crouse Goal (24) Tip-In, assists: MacKenzie Weegar (23), Clayton Keller (61)1–2
- P116:55Michael Carcone Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: JJ Peterka (22), John Marino (32)1–1
- P13:45Pavel Buchnevich Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Kyrou (28), Pius Suter (16)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P20:45Lawson Crouse Goal (24) Tip-In, assists: MacKenzie Weegar (23), Clayton Keller (61)STL 1 – 2 UTA · UTA 52% → 69% +17UTA 52% → 69%+17 pts
- P28:14Robert Thomas Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Holloway (28)STL 2 – 2 UTA · STL 29% → 48% +19STL 29% → 48%+19 pts
- P211:07Robert Thomas Goal (24) Tip-In, assists: Cam Fowler (26), Dylan Holloway (29)STL 3 – 2 UTA · STL 48% → 68% +20STL 48% → 68%+20 pts
- P218:52Kailer Yamamoto Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: MacKenzie Weegar (24), Clayton Keller (62)STL 3 – 3 UTA · UTA 28% → 52% +23UTA 28% → 52%+23 pts
- P317:03Logan Mailloux Goal (5) Backhand, assists: noneSTL 4 – 3 UTA · STL 49% → 95% +45STL 49% → 95%+45 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mammoth 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- UTA 53%
- ML STL +102 / UTA -122
- Pre-line forecast
- UTA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTA 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.8 pts
- UTA: Elo 57.4%, market 52.6%
- Fair odds
- UTA -111
- STL +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.2 – 3.3 UTA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | UTA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | +4 | STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · UTA: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | UTA +52 Elo | UTA 57.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTA 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTA 55.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTA 52.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.313th of 32 |
| 21st of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.94th of 32 |
| 26th of 32−0.4 | Margin | +0.48th of 32 |
| 25th of 3247.7% | Shot share | 51.5%8th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3289.3% | Save percentage | 89.4%20th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 25th of 3216–24 | Road vs home | 22–1813th of 32 |
| 26th of 321497 | Opponent Elo | 149723rd of 32 |
| 18th of 321499 | Elo rating | 151911th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 46–35 | 37–44 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–23 | 20–35 |
| Underdog | 38–12 | 17–9 |
| Overs–unders | 38–43 | 42–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 3–4 UTA in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.
