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Vegas Golden Knights at Utah Mammoth, NHL forecast

Final/OTSeries tied 2-2

Away

Golden Knights

39-26-17

5–4

at

Home

Mammoth

43-33-6

VGK 55%UTA 45%

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Delta Center · ESPN, Scripps Sports, Utah 16

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTA; hover for each play.

UTA favored VGK favored9 scoring plays
P1P2P3OTUTA50%VGK

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Golden Knights

Scoring summary

  • OT19:08Shea Theodore Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (5), Brett Howden (1)5–4
  • P310:25Brett Howden Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Noah Hanifin (4), Jack Eichel (4)4–4
  • P35:10Clayton Keller Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Schmaltz (2), Mikhail Sergachev (3)3–4
  • P31:45Michael Carcone Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Dylan Guenther (2), Mikhail Sergachev (2)3–3
  • P28:33Ian Cole Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Sean Durzi (2)3–2
  • P28:04Nick Schmaltz Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Lawson Crouse (2), Mikhail Sergachev (1)3–1
  • P23:26Cole Smith Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Noah Hanifin (3), Colton Sissons (2)3–0
  • P118:38Brett Howden Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (3)2–0
  • P11:12Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (2), Jack Eichel (3)1–0

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P28:33Ian Cole Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Sean Durzi (2)VGK 3 – 2 UTA · UTA 14% → 28% +14
  2. P31:45Michael Carcone Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Dylan Guenther (2), Mikhail Sergachev (2)VGK 3 – 3 UTA · UTA 23% → 47% +24
  3. P35:10Clayton Keller Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Schmaltz (2), Mikhail Sergachev (3)VGK 3 – 4 UTA · UTA 47% → 75% +27
  4. P310:25Brett Howden Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Noah Hanifin (4), Jack Eichel (4)VGK 4 – 4 UTA · VGK 19% → 52% +33
  5. OT19:08Shea Theodore Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (5), Brett Howden (1)VGK 5 – 4 UTA · VGK 51% → 100% +49

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Golden Knights 55%

LeanHit
VGK 55%UTA 45%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.

Market
VGK 55%
ML VGK -135 / UTA +114
Pre-line forecast
VGK 48%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
VGK 44%
Ratings vs. market
−11.0 pts
VGK: Elo 44.1%, market 55.1%
Fair odds
VGK -123
UTA +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
VGK 2.9 – 2.6 UTA
Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorVGKUTAWhy
Team rating15121517Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies+2+2VGK: Carter Hart: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) · UTA: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsUTA +41 EloUTA 55.9%
Market-implied ratingsUTA 50.6%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastUTA 51.7%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastVGK 55.1%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Vegas Golden Knights and Utah Mammoth compared, with each team's league rank
VGKStatUTA
14th of 323.2Goals scored3.313th of 32
13th of 323.0Goals allowed2.94th of 32
13th of 32+0.2Margin+0.38th of 32
3rd of 3254.3%Shot share51.4%8th of 32
28th of 3288.4%Save percentage89.3%21st of 32
2nd of 327–3Last 106–48th of 32
18th of 3219–22Road vs home22–1914th of 32
29th of 321495Opponent Elo149724th of 32
12th of 321512Elo rating151711th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

Golden KnightsMammoth
1450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonVGKUTA
Puck line35–5039–46
Last 106–45–5
Favorite20–4820–36
Underdog15–219–10
Overs–unders43–4245–40
Overs–unders, last 105–56–4

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

VGK 4–5 UTA in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.