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Vegas Golden Knights at Utah Mammoth, NHL forecast

FinalUTA leads series 2-1

Away

Golden Knights

39-26-17

2–4

at

Home

Mammoth

43-33-6

VGK 50%UTA 50%

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Delta Center · TBS, HBO Max, Scripps Sports, Utah 16

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTA; hover for each play.

UTA favored VGK favored6 scoring plays
P1P2P3UTA50%VGK

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Golden Knights
Mammoth

Scoring summary

  • P316:52Nic Dowd Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Reilly Smith (1), Cole Smith (2)2–4
  • P213:20Jack Eichel Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Ivan Barbashev (1), Mark Stone (1)1–4
  • P29:48Lawson Crouse Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (2)0–4
  • P24:06Lawson Crouse Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Nick Schmaltz (1), MacKenzie Weegar (1)0–3
  • P117:45Dylan Guenther Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Logan Cooley (1), Clayton Keller (1)0–2
  • P112:59MacKenzie Weegar Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Liam O'Brien (1), Kailer Yamamoto (3)0–1

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P112:59MacKenzie Weegar Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Liam O'Brien (1), Kailer Yamamoto (3)VGK 0 – 1 UTA · UTA 50% → 66% +16
  2. P117:45Dylan Guenther Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Logan Cooley (1), Clayton Keller (1)VGK 0 – 2 UTA · UTA 66% → 81% +14
  3. P24:06Lawson Crouse Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Nick Schmaltz (1), MacKenzie Weegar (1)VGK 0 – 3 UTA · UTA 83% → 92% +10
  4. P29:48Lawson Crouse Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (2)VGK 0 – 4 UTA · UTA 94% → 98% +4
  5. P213:20Jack Eichel Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Ivan Barbashev (1), Mark Stone (1)VGK 1 – 4 UTA · VGK 1% → 5% +4

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Golden Knights 50%

Toss-upMiss
VGK 50%UTA 50%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.

Market
VGK 50%
ML VGK -112 / UTA -108
Pre-line forecast
VGK 47%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
VGK 45%
Ratings vs. market
−5.0 pts
VGK: Elo 45.4%, market 50.4%
Fair odds
VGK -102
UTA +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
VGK 2.8 – 2.7 UTA
Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorVGKUTAWhy
Team rating15151514Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies+3+1VGK: Carter Hart: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) · UTA: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsUTA +32 EloUTA 54.6%
Market-implied ratingsUTA 52.1%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastUTA 52.6%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastVGK 50.4%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Vegas Golden Knights and Utah Mammoth compared, with each team's league rank
VGKStatUTA
14th of 323.2Goals scored3.313th of 32
13th of 323.0Goals allowed2.94th of 32
13th of 32+0.2Margin+0.38th of 32
3rd of 3254.3%Shot share51.4%8th of 32
28th of 3288.4%Save percentage89.3%21st of 32
2nd of 327–3Last 106–48th of 32
18th of 3219–22Road vs home22–1914th of 32
30th of 321495Opponent Elo149724th of 32
11th of 321515Elo rating151412th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

Golden KnightsMammoth
1450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonVGKUTA
Puck line35–4938–46
Last 107–35–5
Favorite20–4720–36
Underdog15–218–10
Overs–unders42–4244–40
Overs–unders, last 104–66–4

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

VGK 4–4 UTA in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.