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Utah Mammoth at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast

Final/2OTVGK leads series 3-2

Away

Mammoth

43-33-6

4–5

at

Home

Golden Knights

39-26-17

UTA 41%VGK 59%

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T-Mobile Arena · TNT, truTV, HBO Max, Utah 16, Scripps Sports

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.

VGK favored UTA favored9 scoring plays
P1P2P3OTVGK50%UTA

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Mammoth
Golden Knights

Scoring summary

  • 2OT5:28Brett Howden Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (4)4–5
  • P319:07Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Reilly Smith (2), Jack Eichel (7)4–4
  • P312:42Michael Carcone Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Alexander Kerfoot (1)4–3
  • P35:54Dylan Guenther Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Kailer Yamamoto (4), MacKenzie Weegar (2)3–3
  • P217:17Shea Theodore Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Stone (2)2–3
  • P215:37Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Shea Theodore (1), Ivan Barbashev (3)2–2
  • P210:40Lawson Crouse Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (4), Mikhail Sergachev (4)2–1
  • P119:19Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Tomas Hertl (2), Jack Eichel (6)1–1
  • P117:11John Marino Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (3), Nick Schmaltz (3)1–0

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P215:37Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Shea Theodore (1), Ivan Barbashev (3)UTA 2 – 2 VGK · VGK 34% → 56% +22
  2. P35:54Dylan Guenther Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Kailer Yamamoto (4), MacKenzie Weegar (2)UTA 3 – 3 VGK · UTA 19% → 45% +26
  3. P312:42Michael Carcone Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Alexander Kerfoot (1)UTA 4 – 3 VGK · UTA 47% → 83% +37
  4. P319:07Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Reilly Smith (2), Jack Eichel (7)UTA 4 – 4 VGK · VGK <1% → 51% +51
  5. 2OT5:28Brett Howden Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (4)UTA 4 – 5 VGK · VGK 53% → 100% +47

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Golden Knights 59%

LeanHit
UTA 41%VGK 59%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.

Market
VGK 59%
ML UTA +136 / VGK -162
Pre-line forecast
VGK 61%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
VGK 55%
Ratings vs. market
−4.3 pts
VGK: Elo 55.0%, market 59.3%
Fair odds
VGK -146
UTA +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
UTA 2.5 – 3.0 VGK
Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorUTAVGKWhy
Team rating15141514Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies00UTA: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.00 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · VGK: Carter Hart: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsVGK +35 EloVGK 55.0%
Market-implied ratingsVGK 62.7%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastVGK 61.2%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastVGK 59.3%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Utah Mammoth and Vegas Golden Knights compared, with each team's league rank
UTAStatVGK
13th of 323.3Goals scored3.214th of 32
4th of 322.9Goals allowed3.013th of 32
8th of 32+0.3Margin+0.213th of 32
8th of 3251.4%Shot share54.3%3rd of 32
21st of 3289.3%Save percentage88.4%28th of 32
8th of 326–4Last 107–32nd of 32
10th of 3221–20Road vs home20–2121st of 32
24th of 321497Opponent Elo149530th of 32
11th of 321514Elo rating151412th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

MammothGolden Knights
1450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonUTAVGK
Puck line40–4635–51
Last 105–55–5
Favorite20–3620–49
Underdog20–1015–2
Overs–unders46–4044–42
Overs–unders, last 106–45–5

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

UTA 5–5 VGK in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.