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Edmonton Oilers at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast

FinalANA leads series 2-1

Away

Oilers

41-30-11

4–6

at

Home

Ducks

43-33-6

EDM 56%ANA 44%

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Honda Center · TNT, truTV, HBO Max, KCOP, Victory+

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.

ANA favored EDM favored11 scoring plays
P1P2P3ANA50%EDM

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Scoring summary

  • P318:27Jackson LaCombe Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (4)4–7
  • P316:57Jeffrey Viel Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Tim Washe (1), Jackson LaCombe (5)4–6
  • P38:36Connor McDavid Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (5), Evan Bouchard (2)4–5
  • P33:35Leo Carlsson Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Troy Terry (3)3–5
  • P32:53Beckett Sennecke Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (3)3–4
  • P212:37Alex Killorn Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (2), John Carlson (2)3–3
  • P25:39Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Evan Bouchard (1), Connor McDavid (1)3–2
  • P23:57Kasperi Kapanen Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (4), Connor Murphy (1)2–2
  • P117:45Mikael Granlund Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Chris Kreider (2), Leo Carlsson (2)1–2
  • P116:18Mason McTavish Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Drew Helleson (1), Tyson Hinds (1)1–1
  • P113:12Vasily Podkolzin Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: none1–0

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P23:57Kasperi Kapanen Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (4), Connor Murphy (1)EDM 2 – 2 ANA · EDM 36% → 55% +18
  2. P25:39Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Evan Bouchard (1), Connor McDavid (1)EDM 3 – 2 ANA · EDM 55% → 73% +18
  3. P212:37Alex Killorn Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (2), John Carlson (2)EDM 3 – 3 ANA · ANA 26% → 46% +20
  4. P32:53Beckett Sennecke Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (3)EDM 3 – 4 ANA · ANA 47% → 73% +26
  5. P33:35Leo Carlsson Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Troy Terry (3)EDM 3 – 5 ANA · ANA 73% → 91% +17

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Oilers 56%

LeanMiss
EDM 56%ANA 44%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.

Market
EDM 56%
ML EDM -142 / ANA +120
Pre-line forecast
EDM 52%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
EDM 53%
Ratings vs. market
−3.1 pts
EDM: Elo 53.2%, market 56.3%
Fair odds
EDM -129
ANA +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
EDM 3.9 – 3.6 ANA
Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorEDMANAWhy
Team rating15241469Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies+4+1EDM: Connor Ingram: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) · ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsEDM +22 EloEDM 53.2%
Market-implied ratingsEDM 52.3%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastEDM 52.5%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastEDM 56.3%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Edmonton Oilers and Anaheim Ducks compared, with each team's league rank
EDMStatANA
7th of 323.4Goals scored3.310th of 32
25th of 323.3Goals allowed3.529th of 32
14th of 32+0.2Margin−0.219th of 32
5th of 3252.7%Shot share52.1%6th of 32
29th of 3288.3%Save percentage88.3%30th of 32
8th of 326–4Last 102–827th of 32
18th of 3219–22Road vs home24–178th of 32
32nd of 321493Opponent Elo149529th of 32
10th of 321524Elo rating146926th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

OilersDucks
14001450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonEDMANA
Puck line37–4738–46
Last 107–33–7
Favorite25–416–27
Underdog12–632–19
Overs–unders51–3350–34
Overs–unders, last 105–57–3

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

EDM 8–5 ANA in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 13.