Anaheim Ducks at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Mason McTavishGoals2
- Mikael GranlundAssists1
- Mason McTavishPoints2
Wild- Robby FabbriGoals1
- Nick FolignoAssists1
- Robby FabbriPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:14Mason McTavish Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Mikael Granlund (19), Cutter Gauthier (28)2–3
- P313:03Robby Fabbri Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Nicolas Aube-Kubel (2), Ben Jones (2)1–3
- P211:24Hunter Haight Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Foligno (11), Marcus Johansson (34)1–2
- P116:42Danila Yurov Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Vladimir Tarasenko (24)1–1
- P110:27Mason McTavish Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Jackson LaCombe (48), Ryan Poehling (24)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:27Mason McTavish Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Jackson LaCombe (48), Ryan Poehling (24)ANA 1 – 0 MIN · ANA 60% → 74% +14ANA 60% → 74%+14 pts
- P116:42Danila Yurov Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Vladimir Tarasenko (24)ANA 1 – 1 MIN · MIN 25% → 41% +15MIN 25% → 41%+15 pts
- P211:24Hunter Haight Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Foligno (11), Marcus Johansson (34)ANA 1 – 2 MIN · MIN 42% → 63% +21MIN 42% → 63%+21 pts
- P313:03Robby Fabbri Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Nicolas Aube-Kubel (2), Ben Jones (2)ANA 1 – 3 MIN · MIN 84% → 98% +14MIN 84% → 98%+14 pts
- P319:14Mason McTavish Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Mikael Granlund (19), Cutter Gauthier (28)ANA 2 – 3 MIN · ANA <1% → <1% +0ANA <1% → <1%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Ducks 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- ANA 61%
- ML ANA -175 / MIN +145
- Pre-line forecast
- ANA 41%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ANA 40%
- Ratings vs. market
- −20.5 pts
- ANA: Elo 40.4%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- ANA -156
- MIN +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 3.6 – 2.9 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1465 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | MIN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +1 | ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · MIN: Jesper Wallstedt: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +68 Elo | MIN 59.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 58.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 58.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ANA 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.311th of 32 |
| 29th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 2.97th of 32 |
| 20th of 32−0.2 | Margin | +0.46th of 32 |
| 7th of 3251.7% | Shot share | 50.0%17th of 32 |
| 27th of 3288.4% | Save percentage | 90.8%2nd of 32 |
| 25th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 5–517th of 32 |
| 19th of 3218–21 | Road vs home | 22–1812th of 32 |
| 31st of 321495 | Opponent Elo | 149724th of 32 |
| 26th of 321465 | Elo rating | 15288th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ANA |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 36–44 | 40–41 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–25 | 14–34 |
| Underdog | 30–19 | 26–7 |
| Overs–unders | 47–33 | 45–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ANA 1–7 MIN in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.