Vancouver Canucks at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Marco RossiGoals1
- Marco RossiAssists1
- Brock BoeserPoints2
Ducks- Cutter GauthierGoals2
- Chris KreiderAssists2
- Cutter GauthierPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT4:50Marco Rossi Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: Zeev Buium (20), Brock Boeser (25)4–3
- P36:56Leo Carlsson Goal (29) Backhand, assists: Chris Kreider (28)3–3
- P35:05Cutter Gauthier Goal (40) Slap Shot, assists: Jackson LaCombe (47), Mason McTavish (23)3–2
- P34:28Brock Boeser Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: none3–1
- P114:37Jake DeBrusk Goal (21) Tip-In, assists: Marco Rossi (22), Filip Hronek (40)2–1
- P110:49Curtis Douglas Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Aatu Räty (10), Kirill Kudryavtsev (1)1–1
- P13:41Cutter Gauthier Goal (39) Snap Shot, assists: Chris Kreider (27), Alex Killorn (18)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:37Jake DeBrusk Goal (21) Tip-In, assists: Marco Rossi (22), Filip Hronek (40)VAN 2 – 1 ANA · VAN 29% → 45% +16VAN 29% → 45%+16 pts
- P34:28Brock Boeser Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: noneVAN 3 – 1 ANA · VAN 66% → 87% +21VAN 66% → 87%+21 pts
- P35:05Cutter Gauthier Goal (40) Slap Shot, assists: Jackson LaCombe (47), Mason McTavish (23)VAN 3 – 2 ANA · ANA 12% → 34% +21ANA 12% → 34%+21 pts
- P36:56Leo Carlsson Goal (29) Backhand, assists: Chris Kreider (28)VAN 3 – 3 ANA · ANA 31% → 61% +30ANA 31% → 61%+30 pts
- OT4:50Marco Rossi Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: Zeev Buium (20), Brock Boeser (25)VAN 4 – 3 ANA · VAN 49% → >99% +51VAN 49% → >99%+51 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Ducks 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- ANA 73%
- ML VAN +260 / ANA -325
- Pre-line forecast
- ANA 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ANA 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.4 pts
- ANA: Elo 69.9%, market 73.4%
- Fair odds
- ANA -275
- VAN +275 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 3.0 – 4.5 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1396 | 1468 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | VAN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −7 | +3 | VAN: Nikita Tolopilo: team allows 0.18 more goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) · ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ANA +147 Elo | ANA 69.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ANA 72.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ANA 71.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ANA 73.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.310th of 32 |
| 32nd of 323.8 | Goals allowed | 3.529th of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−1.2 | Margin | −0.220th of 32 |
| 27th of 3246.8% | Shot share | 51.7%7th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3288.0% | Save percentage | 88.5%26th of 32 |
| 30th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 4–623rd of 32 |
| 28th of 3215–24 | Road vs home | 24–168th of 32 |
| 19th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 149630th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321396 | Elo rating | 146826th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VAN |  ANA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 36–43 | 36–43 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 1–9 | 6–24 |
| Underdog | 35–34 | 30–19 |
| Overs–unders | 45–34 | 47–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VAN 8–2 ANA in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.