Anaheim Ducks at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Tristan LuneauGoals1
- Mikael GranlundAssists3
- Mikael GranlundPoints3
Predators- Steven StamkosGoals2
- Luke EvangelistaAssists2
- Steven StamkosPoints3
Scoring summary
- P317:06Troy Terry Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (22), Leo Carlsson (38)5–4
- P34:17Tristan Luneau Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (21), Jeffrey Viel (7)4–4
- P215:23Steven Stamkos Goal (42) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (49), Luke Evangelista (44)3–4
- P214:37Filip Forsberg Goal (40) Snap Shot, assists: Luke Evangelista (43), Ryan Ufko (9)3–3
- P24:33Alex Killorn Goal (15) Slap Shot, assists: John Carlson (46), Mikael Granlund (20)3–2
- P119:39Jackson LaCombe Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Jacob Trouba (25), Mason McTavish (24)2–2
- P115:55Filip Forsberg Goal (39) Tip-In, assists: Ryan Ufko (8), Steven Stamkos (24)1–2
- P110:09Steven Stamkos Goal (41) Snap Shot, assists: Cole O'Hara (1)1–1
- P11:36Cutter Gauthier Goal (41) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Poehling (25), John Carlson (45)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P24:33Alex Killorn Goal (15) Slap Shot, assists: John Carlson (46), Mikael Granlund (20)ANA 3 – 2 NSH · ANA 52% → 70% +18ANA 52% → 70%+18 pts
- P214:37Filip Forsberg Goal (40) Snap Shot, assists: Luke Evangelista (43), Ryan Ufko (9)ANA 3 – 3 NSH · NSH 27% → 48% +21NSH 27% → 48%+21 pts
- P215:23Steven Stamkos Goal (42) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (49), Luke Evangelista (44)ANA 3 – 4 NSH · NSH 48% → 70% +22NSH 48% → 70%+22 pts
- P34:17Tristan Luneau Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (21), Jeffrey Viel (7)ANA 4 – 4 NSH · ANA 25% → 52% +27ANA 25% → 52%+27 pts
- P317:06Troy Terry Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (22), Leo Carlsson (38)ANA 5 – 4 NSH · ANA 51% → 95% +45ANA 51% → 95%+45 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Ducks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- ANA 53%
- ML ANA -125 / NSH +105
- Pre-line forecast
- ANA 44%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ANA 42%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.1 pts
- ANA: Elo 42.1%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- ANA -114
- NSH +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 3.3 – 3.2 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1463 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −8 | −1 | ANA: Ville Husso: team allows 0.20 more goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NSH +55 Elo | NSH 57.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 55.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ANA 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.021st of 32 |
| 29th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.324th of 32 |
| 19th of 32−0.2 | Margin | −0.322nd of 32 |
| 7th of 3251.9% | Shot share | 48.7%22nd of 32 |
| 28th of 3288.4% | Save percentage | 89.8%14th of 32 |
| 27th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 4–623rd of 32 |
| 20th of 3218–22 | Road vs home | 20–1917th of 32 |
| 30th of 321495 | Opponent Elo | 149919th of 32 |
| 26th of 321463 | Elo rating | 147625th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ANA |  NSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 36–45 | 45–36 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–26 | 7–16 |
| Underdog | 30–19 | 38–20 |
| Overs–unders | 47–34 | 36–45 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ANA 6–2 NSH in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 8.