Colorado Avalanche at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Sam MalinskiGoals1
- Nicolas RoyAssists1
- Sam MalinskiPoints1
Oilers- Connor McDavidGoals1
- Evan BouchardAssists1
- Connor McDavidPoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Nathan MacKinnon Goal Wrist Shot3–2
- SO0:00Martin Necas Goal Wrist Shot3–2
- SO0:00Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal Wrist Shot3–2
- SO0:00Valeri Nichushkin Goal Wrist Shot3–2
- SO0:00Connor McDavid Goal Wrist Shot3–2
- P215:49Connor McDavid Goal (48) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Savoie (19), Evan Bouchard (71)1–1
- P29:05Sam Malinski Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Nicolas Roy (17)1–0
Turning points
The 2 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P29:05Sam Malinski Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Nicolas Roy (17)COL 1 – 0 EDM · COL 52% → 71% +19COL 52% → 71%+19 pts
- P215:49Connor McDavid Goal (48) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Savoie (19), Evan Bouchard (71)COL 1 – 1 EDM · EDM 27% → 48% +21EDM 27% → 48%+21 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- COL 53%
- ML COL -125 / EDM +105
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.3 pts
- COL: Elo 53.5%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- COL -114
- EDM +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.3 – 3.2 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1583 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +11 | +7 | COL: Scott Wedgewood: team allows 0.27 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · EDM: Connor Ingram: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +24 Elo | COL 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 54.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 54.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 323.7 | Goals scored | 3.47th of 32 |
| 1st of 322.5 | Goals allowed | 3.326th of 32 |
| 1st of 32+1.2 | Margin | +0.113th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3256.4% | Shot share | 52.5%5th of 32 |
| 1st of 3291.1% | Save percentage | 88.2%30th of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 32 |
| 1st of 3227–12 | Road vs home | 21–1815th of 32 |
| 29th of 321496 | Opponent Elo | 149332nd of 32 |
| 1st of 321583 | Elo rating | 15279th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  EDM |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 40–39 | 35–45 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 39–39 | 24–39 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 11–6 |
| Overs–unders | 35–44 | 48–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 4–4 EDM in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.