Anaheim Ducks at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Cutter GauthierGoals2
- Jackson LaCombeAssists3
- Cutter GauthierPoints3
Oilers- Leon DraisaitlGoals1
- Leon DraisaitlAssists1
- Leon DraisaitlPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:50Ryan Poehling Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jackson LaCombe (4)6–4
- P315:08Cutter Gauthier Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: none5–4
- P313:51Josh Samanski Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Roslovic (1), Matt Savoie (1)4–4
- P217:48Zach Hyman Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Mattias Ekholm (2), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (1)4–3
- P215:50Ryan Poehling Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Alex Killorn (2)4–2
- P211:46Connor Murphy Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (3), Kasperi Kapanen (1)3–2
- P25:35Alex Killorn Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Cutter Gauthier (1), Jackson LaCombe (3)3–1
- P22:44Jacob Trouba Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jackson LaCombe (2), Troy Terry (2)2–1
- P112:48Cutter Gauthier Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Killorn (1)1–1
- P18:58Leon Draisaitl Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Vasily Podkolzin (3), Jake Walman (3)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P22:44Jacob Trouba Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jackson LaCombe (2), Troy Terry (2)ANA 2 – 1 EDM · ANA 39% → 57% +18ANA 39% → 57%+18 pts
- P215:50Ryan Poehling Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Alex Killorn (2)ANA 4 – 2 EDM · ANA 64% → 82% +19ANA 64% → 82%+19 pts
- P217:48Zach Hyman Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Mattias Ekholm (2), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (1)ANA 4 – 3 EDM · EDM 16% → 35% +19EDM 16% → 35%+19 pts
- P313:51Josh Samanski Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Roslovic (1), Matt Savoie (1)ANA 4 – 4 EDM · EDM 15% → 54% +39EDM 15% → 54%+39 pts
- P315:08Cutter Gauthier Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: noneANA 5 – 4 EDM · ANA 46% → 88% +42ANA 46% → 88%+42 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 64%
- ML ANA +164 / EDM -198
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.1 pts
- EDM: Elo 64.8%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- EDM -175
- ANA +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 2.9 – 3.6 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1464 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +8 | ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · EDM: Connor Ingram: team allows 0.20 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +106 Elo | EDM 64.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 59.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 60.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.47th of 32 |
| 29th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.325th of 32 |
| 19th of 32−0.2 | Margin | +0.214th of 32 |
| 6th of 3252.1% | Shot share | 52.7%5th of 32 |
| 30th of 3288.3% | Save percentage | 88.3%29th of 32 |
| 27th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 18th of 3219–22 | Road vs home | 22–1914th of 32 |
| 29th of 321495 | Opponent Elo | 149332nd of 32 |
| 26th of 321464 | Elo rating | 15299th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ANA |  EDM |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 37–46 | 37–46 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 6–27 | 25–40 |
| Underdog | 31–19 | 12–6 |
| Overs–unders | 49–34 | 50–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ANA 4–8 EDM in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 12.