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Vancouver Canucks at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast

FinalESPN+

Away

Canucks

25-49-8

1–6

at

Home

Oilers

41-30-11

VAN 25%EDM 75%

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Rogers Place · ESPN+

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.

EDM favored VAN favored7 scoring plays
P1P2P3EDM50%VAN

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Canucks
Oilers

Scoring summary

  • P38:20Colton Dach Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Murphy (12), Darnell Nurse (17)1–6
  • P216:46Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (20) Batted, assists: Zach Hyman (21), Connor McDavid (90)1–5
  • P119:02Matt Savoie Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (89), Evan Bouchard (74)1–4
  • P114:35Matt Savoie Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (88)1–3
  • P112:10Ty Mueller Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Curtis Douglas (3), Kevin Lankinen (2)1–2
  • P16:48Matt Savoie Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Evan Bouchard (73), Connor McDavid (87)0–2
  • P11:58Josh Samanski Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Colton Dach (8), Evan Bouchard (72)0–1

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P11:58Josh Samanski Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Colton Dach (8), Evan Bouchard (72)VAN 0 – 1 EDM · EDM 74% → 85% +10
  2. P16:48Matt Savoie Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Evan Bouchard (73), Connor McDavid (87)VAN 0 – 2 EDM · EDM 85% → 92% +7
  3. P112:10Ty Mueller Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Curtis Douglas (3), Kevin Lankinen (2)VAN 1 – 2 EDM · VAN 8% → 16% +8
  4. P114:35Matt Savoie Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (88)VAN 1 – 3 EDM · EDM 84% → 92% +8
  5. P119:02Matt Savoie Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (89), Evan Bouchard (74)VAN 1 – 4 EDM · EDM 92% → 97% +5

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Oilers 75%

StrongHit
VAN 25%EDM 75%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.

Market
EDM 75%
ML VAN +280 / EDM -355
Pre-line forecast
EDM 72%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
EDM 72%
Ratings vs. market
−2.6 pts
EDM: Elo 72.2%, market 74.8%
Fair odds
EDM -296
VAN +296 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
VAN 2.5 – 4.0 EDM
Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorVANEDMWhy
Team rating14031525Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies−1+8VAN: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · EDM: Connor Ingram: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsEDM +166 EloEDM 72.2%
Market-implied ratingsEDM 72.6%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastEDM 72.5%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastEDM 74.8%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Vancouver Canucks and Edmonton Oilers compared, with each team's league rank
VANStatEDM
30th of 322.7Goals scored3.47th of 32
32nd of 323.8Goals allowed3.326th of 32
32nd of 32−1.2Margin+0.114th of 32
27th of 3246.8%Shot share52.5%5th of 32
32nd of 3288.1%Save percentage88.3%30th of 32
23rd of 324–6Last 106–48th of 32
26th of 3216–24Road vs home21–1916th of 32
18th of 321499Opponent Elo149532nd of 32
31st of 321403Elo rating152510th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

CanucksOilers
135014001450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonVANEDM
Puck line38–4336–45
Last 105–59–1
Favorite1–924–39
Underdog37–3412–6
Overs–unders46–3548–33
Overs–unders, last 106–44–6

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

VAN 9–8 EDM in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 17.