Los Angeles Kings at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Quinton ByfieldGoals1
- Quinton ByfieldAssists1
- Quinton ByfieldPoints2
Canucks- Jake DeBruskGoals2
- Elias PetterssonAssists2
- Jake DeBruskPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT2:58Jake DeBrusk Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Elias Pettersson (36), Tom Willander (16)3–4
- P29:20Zeev Buium Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Nils Hoglander (3), Elias Pettersson (35)3–3
- P22:17Alex Laferriere Goal (21) Backhand, assists: Drew Doughty (18), Quinton Byfield (25)3–2
- P21:04Adrian Kempe Goal (36) Snap Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (26), Artemi Panarin (56)2–2
- P20:52Jake DeBrusk Goal (22) Backhand, assists: Brock Boeser (26), Filip Hronek (41)1–2
- P117:15Quinton Byfield Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Laferriere (22), Trevor Moore (18)1–1
- P19:21Elias Pettersson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Kudryavtsev (2), Marco Rossi (23)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P117:15Quinton Byfield Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Laferriere (22), Trevor Moore (18)LA 1 – 1 VAN · LA 41% → 58% +17LA 41% → 58%+17 pts
- P20:52Jake DeBrusk Goal (22) Backhand, assists: Brock Boeser (26), Filip Hronek (41)LA 1 – 2 VAN · VAN 42% → 60% +18VAN 42% → 60%+18 pts
- P21:04Adrian Kempe Goal (36) Snap Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (26), Artemi Panarin (56)LA 2 – 2 VAN · LA 40% → 58% +18LA 40% → 58%+18 pts
- P29:20Zeev Buium Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Nils Hoglander (3), Elias Pettersson (35)LA 3 – 3 VAN · VAN 25% → 43% +18VAN 25% → 43%+18 pts
- OT2:58Jake DeBrusk Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Elias Pettersson (36), Tom Willander (16)LA 3 – 4 VAN · VAN 48% → 97% +49VAN 48% → 97%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- LA 59%
- ML LA -162 / VAN +136
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.1 pts
- LA: Elo 53.2%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- LA -146
- VAN +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 3.5 – 3.0 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1400 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | LA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −3 | −2 | LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · VAN: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +22 Elo | LA 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 58.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 57.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LA 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 2.630th of 32 |
| 11th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.832nd of 32 |
| 21st of 32−0.2 | Margin | −1.232nd of 32 |
| 12th of 3250.6% | Shot share | 46.8%27th of 32 |
| 12th of 3290.0% | Save percentage | 88.1%32nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 32 |
| 10th of 3220–19 | Road vs home | 8–3232nd of 32 |
| 24th of 321497 | Opponent Elo | 149921st of 32 |
| 21st of 321489 | Elo rating | 140031st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LA |  VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 30–50 | 37–43 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 11–39 | 1–9 |
| Underdog | 19–11 | 36–34 |
| Overs–unders | 37–43 | 45–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LA 7–3 VAN in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.