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Edmonton Oilers at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast

Final/OTANA leads series 3-1

Away

Oilers

41-30-11

3–4

at

Home

Ducks

43-33-6

EDM 55%ANA 45%

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Honda Center · ESPN, Victory+

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.

ANA favored EDM favored7 scoring plays
P1P2P3OTANA50%EDM

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Oilers

Scoring summary

  • OT2:29Ryan Poehling Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Mason McTavish (1)3–4
  • P313:31Jeffrey Viel Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: John Carlson (4), Jackson LaCombe (7)3–3
  • P33:27Evan Bouchard Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (3), Leon Draisaitl (6)3–2
  • P218:43Mikael Granlund Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Leo Carlsson (3), John Carlson (3)2–2
  • P27:36Cutter Gauthier Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Jackson LaCombe (6), Alex Killorn (3)2–1
  • P16:32Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Evan Bouchard (3), Connor McDavid (2)2–0
  • P10:38Kasperi Kapanen Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Walman (4), Jason Dickinson (1)1–0

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P27:36Cutter Gauthier Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Jackson LaCombe (6), Alex Killorn (3)EDM 2 – 1 ANA · ANA 14% → 28% +14
  2. P218:43Mikael Granlund Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Leo Carlsson (3), John Carlson (3)EDM 2 – 2 ANA · ANA 25% → 47% +22
  3. P33:27Evan Bouchard Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (3), Leon Draisaitl (6)EDM 3 – 2 ANA · EDM 53% → 78% +25
  4. P313:31Jeffrey Viel Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: John Carlson (4), Jackson LaCombe (7)EDM 3 – 3 ANA · ANA 12% → 48% +36
  5. OT2:29Ryan Poehling Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Mason McTavish (1)EDM 3 – 4 ANA · ANA 49% → 96% +47

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Oilers 55%

LeanMiss
EDM 55%ANA 45%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.

Market
EDM 55%
ML EDM -135 / ANA +114
Pre-line forecast
EDM 52%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
EDM 50%
Ratings vs. market
−5.5 pts
EDM: Elo 49.6%, market 55.1%
Fair odds
EDM -123
ANA +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
EDM 3.9 – 3.6 ANA
Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorEDMANAWhy
Team rating15201473Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies−14+1EDM: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.34 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsANA +3 EloANA 50.4%
Market-implied ratingsEDM 52.9%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastEDM 52.2%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastEDM 55.1%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Edmonton Oilers and Anaheim Ducks compared, with each team's league rank
EDMStatANA
7th of 323.4Goals scored3.310th of 32
25th of 323.3Goals allowed3.529th of 32
14th of 32+0.2Margin−0.219th of 32
5th of 3252.7%Shot share52.1%6th of 32
29th of 3288.3%Save percentage88.3%30th of 32
8th of 326–4Last 102–827th of 32
18th of 3219–22Road vs home24–178th of 32
32nd of 321494Opponent Elo149530th of 32
10th of 321520Elo rating147324th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

OilersDucks
14001450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonEDMANA
Puck line37–4839–46
Last 106–44–6
Favorite25–426–27
Underdog12–633–19
Overs–unders52–3351–34
Overs–unders, last 106–47–3

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

EDM 8–6 ANA in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 14.