Anaheim Ducks at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Alex KillornGoals1
- Mason McTavishAssists1
- Alex KillornPoints1
Oilers- Leon DraisaitlGoals2
- Evan BouchardAssists3
- Evan BouchardPoints3
Scoring summary
- P210:24Leon Draisaitl Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (5), Evan Bouchard (6)1–4
- P28:26Alex Killorn Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Mason McTavish (2), Cutter Gauthier (2)1–3
- P110:13Leon Draisaitl Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Evan Bouchard (5), Connor McDavid (4)0–3
- P18:33Zach Hyman Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (3)0–2
- P12:22Vasily Podkolzin Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Evan Bouchard (4), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:22Vasily Podkolzin Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Evan Bouchard (4), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (2)ANA 0 – 1 EDM · EDM 58% → 72% +14EDM 58% → 72%+14 pts
- P18:33Zach Hyman Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (3)ANA 0 – 2 EDM · EDM 72% → 84% +12EDM 72% → 84%+12 pts
- P110:13Leon Draisaitl Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Evan Bouchard (5), Connor McDavid (4)ANA 0 – 3 EDM · EDM 84% → 92% +8EDM 84% → 92%+8 pts
- P28:26Alex Killorn Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Mason McTavish (2), Cutter Gauthier (2)ANA 1 – 3 EDM · ANA 5% → 12% +8ANA 5% → 12%+8 pts
- P210:24Leon Draisaitl Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (5), Evan Bouchard (6)ANA 1 – 4 EDM · EDM 88% → 96% +7EDM 88% → 96%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 58%
- ML ANA +130 / EDM -155
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.7 pts
- EDM: Elo 61.0%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- EDM -140
- ANA +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 3.5 – 4.0 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +2 | ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · EDM: Connor Ingram: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +78 Elo | EDM 61.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 65.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 64.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.47th of 32 |
| 29th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.325th of 32 |
| 19th of 32−0.2 | Margin | +0.214th of 32 |
| 6th of 3252.1% | Shot share | 52.7%5th of 32 |
| 30th of 3288.3% | Save percentage | 88.3%29th of 32 |
| 27th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 18th of 3219–22 | Road vs home | 22–1914th of 32 |
| 30th of 321495 | Opponent Elo | 149432nd of 32 |
| 24th of 321476 | Elo rating | 151810th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ANA |  EDM |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 40–46 | 37–49 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–27 | 25–43 |
| Underdog | 34–19 | 12–6 |
| Overs–unders | 51–35 | 52–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ANA 7–8 EDM in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 15.
- Apr 26EDM 3 @ ANA 4PlayoffsPicked EDM 55%Miss
- Apr 24EDM 4 @ ANA 6PlayoffsPicked EDM 56%Miss
- Apr 22ANA 6 @ EDM 4PlayoffsPicked EDM 64%Miss
- Apr 20ANA 3 @ EDM 4PlayoffsPicked EDM 63%Hit
- Mar 28ANA 2 @ EDM 4Picked EDM 57%Hit
- Feb 25EDM 5 @ ANA 6Picked EDM 54%Miss
- Jan 26ANA 4 @ EDM 7Picked EDM 70%Hit
- Apr 7EDM 2 @ ANA 3Picked EDM 56%Miss