Anaheim Ducks at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Mikael GranlundGoals1
- John CarlsonAssists1
- Mikael GranlundPoints1
Golden Knights- Mitch MarnerGoals1
- Mitch MarnerAssists1
- Mitch MarnerPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:54Mitch Marner Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–3
- P315:02Ivan Barbashev Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Pavel Dorofeyev (1)1–2
- P313:57Mikael Granlund Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Jackson LaCombe (9), John Carlson (6)1–1
- P23:14Brett Howden Goal (5) Deflected, assists: Mitch Marner (6), Rasmus Andersson (1)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P23:14Brett Howden Goal (5) Deflected, assists: Mitch Marner (6), Rasmus Andersson (1)ANA 0 – 1 VGK · VGK 59% → 75% +17VGK 59% → 75%+17 pts
- P313:57Mikael Granlund Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Jackson LaCombe (9), John Carlson (6)ANA 1 – 1 VGK · ANA 11% → 46% +36ANA 11% → 46%+36 pts
- P315:02Ivan Barbashev Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Pavel Dorofeyev (1)ANA 1 – 2 VGK · VGK 53% → 91% +38VGK 53% → 91%+38 pts
- P319:54Mitch Marner Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: noneANA 1 – 3 VGK · VGK 100% → 100% +0VGK 100% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 61%
- ML ANA +145 / VGK -175
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.4 pts
- VGK: Elo 61.3%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- VGK -156
- ANA +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 2.9 – 3.6 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +2 | ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · VGK: Carter Hart: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +80 Elo | VGK 61.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 65.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 64.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.214th of 32 |
| 29th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.013th of 32 |
| 19th of 32−0.2 | Margin | +0.213th of 32 |
| 6th of 3252.1% | Shot share | 54.3%3rd of 32 |
| 30th of 3288.3% | Save percentage | 88.4%28th of 32 |
| 27th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 18th of 3219–22 | Road vs home | 20–2121st of 32 |
| 29th of 321495 | Opponent Elo | 149430th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321477 | Elo rating | 152210th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ANA |  VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 41–47 | 36–52 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–27 | 21–50 |
| Underdog | 35–20 | 15–2 |
| Overs–unders | 52–36 | 45–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ANA 6–5 VGK in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 11.