Minnesota Wild at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Marcus JohanssonGoals1
- Daemon HuntAssists1
- Marcus JohanssonPoints1
Avalanche- Nathan MacKinnonGoals1
- Nathan MacKinnonAssists2
- Nathan MacKinnonPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:55Valeri Nichushkin Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Brett Kulak (3), Brent Burns (1)2–5
- P314:33Marcus Johansson Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Danila Yurov (2), Daemon Hunt (1)2–4
- P313:18Nathan MacKinnon Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Nazem Kadri (3), Gabriel Landeskog (4)1–4
- P21:24Nicolas Roy Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Ross Colton (2), Brock Nelson (1)1–3
- P18:24Gabriel Landeskog Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (6), Martin Necas (6)1–2
- P12:57Kirill Kaprizov Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Hartman (4), Mats Zuccarello (5)1–1
- P12:51Martin Necas Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (5), Brett Kulak (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:51Martin Necas Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (5), Brett Kulak (2)MIN 0 – 1 COL · COL 64% → 77% +13COL 64% → 77%+13 pts
- P12:57Kirill Kaprizov Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Hartman (4), Mats Zuccarello (5)MIN 1 – 1 COL · MIN 23% → 36% +13MIN 23% → 36%+13 pts
- P18:24Gabriel Landeskog Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (6), Martin Necas (6)MIN 1 – 2 COL · COL 63% → 77% +14COL 63% → 77%+14 pts
- P21:24Nicolas Roy Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Ross Colton (2), Brock Nelson (1)MIN 1 – 3 COL · COL 77% → 89% +11COL 77% → 89%+11 pts
- P313:18Nathan MacKinnon Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Nazem Kadri (3), Gabriel Landeskog (4)MIN 1 – 4 COL · COL 99% → >99% +1COL 99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- COL 64%
- ML MIN +170 / COL -205
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.7 pts
- COL: Elo 65.2%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- COL -181
- MIN +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 2.8 – 3.7 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1539 | 1602 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −4 | +7 | MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · COL: Scott Wedgewood: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +109 Elo | COL 65.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 66.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 65.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.71st of 32 |
| 4th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 2.51st of 32 |
| 6th of 32+0.4 | Margin | +1.21st of 32 |
| 18th of 3249.8% | Shot share | 56.3%2nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 3290.8% | Save percentage | 91.4%1st of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 7th of 3223–18 | Road vs home | 26–153rd of 32 |
| 27th of 321496 | Opponent Elo | 149430th of 32 |
| 6th of 321539 | Elo rating | 16021st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 44–45 | 45–42 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 15–36 | 44–42 |
| Underdog | 29–9 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 51–38 | 38–49 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 4–9 COL in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 13.