Skip to content
ShadowCryptsPredictions
Live
NHL games
Updated

Minnesota Wild at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast

FinalMIN leads series 3-2

Away

Wild

46-24-12

4–2

at

Home

Stars

50-20-12

MIN 47%DAL 53%

You didn't pick this one.

American Airlines Center · ESPN2, FanDuel SN North, FanDuel SN WI, Victory+

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.

DAL favored MIN favored6 scoring plays
P1P2P3DAL50%MIN

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Scoring summary

  • P318:00Kirill Kaprizov Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Matt Boldy (3), Jake Middleton (1)4–2
  • P316:39Jason Robertson Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Miro Heiskanen (4), Mikko Rantanen (5)3–2
  • P37:47Michael McCarron Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Yakov Trenin (1), Vladimir Tarasenko (1)3–1
  • P219:28Matt Boldy Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (5), Kirill Kaprizov (7)2–1
  • P18:58Miro Heiskanen Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Jason Robertson (3), Matt Duchene (6)1–1
  • P13:51Mats Zuccarello Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (6), Ryan Hartman (3)1–0

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P13:51Mats Zuccarello Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (6), Ryan Hartman (3)MIN 1 – 0 DAL · MIN 47% → 62% +15
  2. P18:58Miro Heiskanen Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Jason Robertson (3), Matt Duchene (6)MIN 1 – 1 DAL · DAL 37% → 53% +16
  3. P219:28Matt Boldy Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (5), Kirill Kaprizov (7)MIN 2 – 1 DAL · MIN 48% → 72% +24
  4. P37:47Michael McCarron Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Yakov Trenin (1), Vladimir Tarasenko (1)MIN 3 – 1 DAL · MIN 78% → 94% +16
  5. P316:39Jason Robertson Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Miro Heiskanen (4), Mikko Rantanen (5)MIN 3 – 2 DAL · DAL <1% → 6% +6

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Stars 53%

Toss-upMiss
MIN 47%DAL 53%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.

Market
DAL 53%
ML MIN +105 / DAL -125
Pre-line forecast
DAL 56%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
DAL 58%
Ratings vs. market
+4.8 pts
DAL: Elo 58.1%, market 53.2%
Fair odds
DAL -114
MIN +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
MIN 2.7 – 2.8 DAL
Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorMINDALWhy
Team rating15341557Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies+2−1MIN: Jesper Wallstedt: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsDAL +56 EloDAL 58.1%
Market-implied ratingsDAL 55.7%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastDAL 56.2%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastDAL 53.2%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Minnesota Wild and Dallas Stars compared, with each team's league rank
MINStatDAL
11th of 323.3Goals scored3.48th of 32
4th of 322.9Goals allowed2.82nd of 32
6th of 32+0.4Margin+0.64th of 32
18th of 3249.8%Shot share49.2%20th of 32
2nd of 3290.8%Save percentage90.2%9th of 32
8th of 326–4Last 107–32nd of 32
7th of 3223–18Road vs home26–153rd of 32
27th of 321496Opponent Elo149725th of 32
6th of 321534Elo rating15575th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

WildStars
1450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonMINDAL
Puck line42–4435–51
Last 104–64–6
Favorite14–3619–48
Underdog28–816–3
Overs–unders48–3844–42
Overs–unders, last 107–37–3

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

MIN 6–9 DAL in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 15.