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Dallas Stars at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast

Final/2OTDAL leads series 2-1

Away

Stars

50-20-12

4–3

at

Home

Wild

46-24-12

DAL 45%MIN 55%

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Grand Casino Arena · TNT, truTV, HBO Max, Victory+, FanDuel SN North, FanDuel SN WI

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.

MIN favored DAL favored7 scoring plays
P1P2P3OTMIN50%DAL

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Stars

Scoring summary

  • 2OT12:10Wyatt Johnston Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Miro Heiskanen (3), Jason Robertson (2)4–3
  • P310:18Matt Duchene Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (2), Wyatt Johnston (2)3–3
  • P217:25Michael McCarron Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Foligno (1), Jonas Brodin (1)2–3
  • P25:00Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (2), Quinn Hughes (4)2–2
  • P118:20Marcus Johansson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Bobby Brink (1)2–1
  • P113:48Jason Robertson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (3)2–0
  • P11:25Mikko Rantanen Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Jason Robertson (1), Matt Duchene (2)1–0

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P118:20Marcus Johansson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Bobby Brink (1)DAL 2 – 1 MIN · MIN 22% → 37% +15
  2. P25:00Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (2), Quinn Hughes (4)DAL 2 – 2 MIN · MIN 35% → 54% +19
  3. P217:25Michael McCarron Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Foligno (1), Jonas Brodin (1)DAL 2 – 3 MIN · MIN 53% → 75% +22
  4. P310:18Matt Duchene Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (2), Wyatt Johnston (2)DAL 3 – 3 MIN · DAL 17% → 48% +31
  5. 2OT12:10Wyatt Johnston Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Miro Heiskanen (3), Jason Robertson (2)DAL 4 – 3 MIN · DAL 49% → 100% +51

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Wild 55%

LeanMiss
DAL 45%MIN 55%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.

Market
MIN 55%
ML DAL +114 / MIN -135
Pre-line forecast
MIN 53%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
MIN 52%
Ratings vs. market
−3.1 pts
MIN: Elo 52.1%, market 55.1%
Fair odds
MIN -123
DAL +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
DAL 2.6 – 2.9 MIN
Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorDALMINWhy
Team rating15571534Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies−1+2DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · MIN: Jesper Wallstedt: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsMIN +14 EloMIN 52.1%
Market-implied ratingsMIN 53.2%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastMIN 53.0%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastMIN 55.1%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

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Dallas Stars and Minnesota Wild compared, with each team's league rank
DALStatMIN
8th of 323.4Goals scored3.311th of 32
2nd of 322.8Goals allowed2.94th of 32
4th of 32+0.6Margin+0.46th of 32
20th of 3249.2%Shot share49.8%18th of 32
9th of 3290.2%Save percentage90.8%2nd of 32
2nd of 327–3Last 106–48th of 32
2nd of 3224–17Road vs home23–1811th of 32
25th of 321497Opponent Elo149627th of 32
4th of 321557Elo rating15347th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

StarsWild
1450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonDALMIN
Puck line33–5142–42
Last 103–76–4
Favorite19–4814–34
Underdog14–328–8
Overs–unders43–4147–37
Overs–unders, last 107–37–3

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

DAL 8–5 MIN in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 13.