Minnesota Wild at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Matt BoldyGoals2
- Mats ZuccarelloAssists3
- Joel Eriksson EkPoints3
Stars- Jason RobertsonGoals1
- Miro HeiskanenAssists1
- Jason RobertsonPoints1
Scoring summary
- P316:52Matt Boldy Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: none6–1
- P38:13Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (2), Mats Zuccarello (3)5–1
- P215:10Jason Robertson Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Wyatt Johnston (1), Miro Heiskanen (1)4–1
- P26:30Matt Boldy Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (1), Joel Eriksson Ek (1)4–0
- P23:28Ryan Hartman Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Brock Faber (1), Quinn Hughes (1)3–0
- P20:56Kirill Kaprizov Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Hartman (1), Mats Zuccarello (2)2–0
- P15:35Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (1), Mats Zuccarello (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:35Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (1), Mats Zuccarello (1)MIN 1 – 0 DAL · MIN 47% → 62% +15MIN 47% → 62%+15 pts
- P20:56Kirill Kaprizov Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Hartman (1), Mats Zuccarello (2)MIN 2 – 0 DAL · MIN 65% → 80% +15MIN 65% → 80%+15 pts
- P23:28Ryan Hartman Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Brock Faber (1), Quinn Hughes (1)MIN 3 – 0 DAL · MIN 81% → 91% +10MIN 81% → 91%+10 pts
- P26:30Matt Boldy Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (1), Joel Eriksson Ek (1)MIN 4 – 0 DAL · MIN 92% → 97% +5MIN 92% → 97%+5 pts
- P215:10Jason Robertson Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Wyatt Johnston (1), Miro Heiskanen (1)MIN 4 – 1 DAL · DAL 1% → 5% +4DAL 1% → 5%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 53%
- ML MIN +105 / DAL -125
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.0 pts
- DAL: Elo 59.2%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- DAL -114
- MIN +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 2.7 – 2.8 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1561 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +1 | MIN: Jesper Wallstedt: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +65 Elo | DAL 59.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 63.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 63.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.48th of 32 |
| 4th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 2.82nd of 32 |
| 6th of 32+0.4 | Margin | +0.64th of 32 |
| 18th of 3249.8% | Shot share | 49.2%20th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3290.8% | Save percentage | 90.2%9th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 7th of 3223–18 | Road vs home | 26–153rd of 32 |
| 27th of 321496 | Opponent Elo | 149725th of 32 |
| 8th of 321530 | Elo rating | 15614th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 41–41 | 32–50 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 14–34 | 18–47 |
| Underdog | 27–7 | 14–3 |
| Overs–unders | 45–37 | 41–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 4–7 DAL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 11.