Minnesota Wild at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Brock FaberGoals2
- Quinn HughesAssists2
- Brock FaberPoints2
Stars- Wyatt JohnstonGoals2
- Nils LundkvistAssists2
- Wyatt JohnstonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:10Wyatt Johnston Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Justin Hryckowian (1), Esa Lindell (1)2–4
- P39:47Brock Faber Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Joel Eriksson Ek (2), Quinn Hughes (3)2–3
- P37:09Jason Robertson Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Nils Lundkvist (2), Matt Duchene (1)1–3
- P24:02Matt Duchene Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (1), Miro Heiskanen (2)1–2
- P111:33Brock Faber Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (2), Kirill Kaprizov (3)1–1
- P18:58Wyatt Johnston Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Nils Lundkvist (1), Oskar Bäck (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:58Wyatt Johnston Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Nils Lundkvist (1), Oskar Bäck (1)MIN 0 – 1 DAL · DAL 56% → 71% +15DAL 56% → 71%+15 pts
- P111:33Brock Faber Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (2), Kirill Kaprizov (3)MIN 1 – 1 DAL · MIN 29% → 44% +15MIN 29% → 44%+15 pts
- P24:02Matt Duchene Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (1), Miro Heiskanen (2)MIN 1 – 2 DAL · DAL 55% → 72% +17DAL 55% → 72%+17 pts
- P37:09Jason Robertson Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Nils Lundkvist (2), Matt Duchene (1)MIN 1 – 3 DAL · DAL 81% → 95% +14DAL 81% → 95%+14 pts
- P39:47Brock Faber Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Joel Eriksson Ek (2), Quinn Hughes (3)MIN 2 – 3 DAL · MIN 3% → 17% +14MIN 3% → 17%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 56%
- ML MIN +120 / DAL -142
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.3 pts
- DAL: Elo 56.7%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- DAL -129
- MIN +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 2.6 – 2.9 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1554 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | −1 | MIN: Jesper Wallstedt: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +46 Elo | DAL 56.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 57.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 57.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.48th of 32 |
| 4th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 2.82nd of 32 |
| 6th of 32+0.4 | Margin | +0.64th of 32 |
| 18th of 3249.8% | Shot share | 49.2%20th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3290.8% | Save percentage | 90.2%9th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 7th of 3223–18 | Road vs home | 26–153rd of 32 |
| 27th of 321496 | Opponent Elo | 149725th of 32 |
| 6th of 321537 | Elo rating | 15545th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 42–41 | 32–51 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 14–34 | 18–48 |
| Underdog | 28–7 | 14–3 |
| Overs–unders | 46–37 | 42–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 5–7 DAL in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 12.