Dallas Stars at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Jason RobertsonGoals1
- Matt DucheneAssists2
- Matt DuchenePoints2
Wild- Brock FaberGoals1
- Kirill KaprizovAssists2
- Brock FaberPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT19:31Matt Boldy Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Jared Spurgeon (1), Kirill Kaprizov (5)2–3
- P314:40Marcus Foligno Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Nico Sturm (1), Brock Faber (2)2–2
- P219:25Miro Heiskanen Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (5), Mikko Rantanen (4)2–1
- P113:52Brock Faber Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (4), Ryan Hartman (2)1–1
- P15:35Jason Robertson Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (4), Mikko Rantanen (3)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:35Jason Robertson Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (4), Mikko Rantanen (3)DAL 1 – 0 MIN · DAL 46% → 61% +15DAL 46% → 61%+15 pts
- P113:52Brock Faber Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (4), Ryan Hartman (2)DAL 1 – 1 MIN · MIN 37% → 54% +16MIN 37% → 54%+16 pts
- P219:25Miro Heiskanen Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (5), Mikko Rantanen (4)DAL 2 – 1 MIN · DAL 47% → 71% +24DAL 47% → 71%+24 pts
- P314:40Marcus Foligno Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Nico Sturm (1), Brock Faber (2)DAL 2 – 2 MIN · MIN 12% → 51% +40MIN 12% → 51%+40 pts
- OT19:31Matt Boldy Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Jared Spurgeon (1), Kirill Kaprizov (5)DAL 2 – 3 MIN · MIN 51% → 100% +49MIN 51% → 100%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Wild 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 54%
- ML DAL +110 / MIN -130
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.1 pts
- MIN: Elo 51.1%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- MIN -119
- DAL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 2.6 – 2.9 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1560 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +1 | DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · MIN: Jesper Wallstedt: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +8 Elo | MIN 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 53.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.311th of 32 |
| 2nd of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 2.94th of 32 |
| 4th of 32+0.6 | Margin | +0.46th of 32 |
| 20th of 3249.2% | Shot share | 49.8%18th of 32 |
| 9th of 3290.2% | Save percentage | 90.8%2nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3224–17 | Road vs home | 23–1811th of 32 |
| 25th of 321497 | Opponent Elo | 149627th of 32 |
| 4th of 321560 | Elo rating | 15317th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 34–51 | 42–43 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 19–48 | 14–35 |
| Underdog | 15–3 | 28–8 |
| Overs–unders | 44–41 | 48–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 9–5 MIN in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 14.
- Apr 22DAL 4 @ MIN 3PlayoffsPicked MIN 55%Miss
- Apr 20MIN 2 @ DAL 4PlayoffsPicked DAL 56%Hit
- Apr 18MIN 6 @ DAL 1PlayoffsPicked DAL 53%Miss
- Apr 9MIN 4 @ DAL 5Picked DAL 53%Hit
- Mar 21DAL 1 @ MIN 2Picked DAL 55%Miss
- Dec 11DAL 2 @ MIN 5Picked DAL 54%Miss
- Oct 14MIN 2 @ DAL 5Picked DAL 63%Hit
- Apr 6DAL 2 @ MIN 3Picked DAL 54%Miss