Colorado Avalanche at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Nathan MacKinnonGoals2
- Gabriel LandeskogAssists2
- Nathan MacKinnonPoints3
Kings- Joel EdmundsonGoals1
- Adrian KempeAssists1
- Joel EdmundsonPoints1
Scoring summary
- P314:22Nathan MacKinnon Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Martin Necas (2), Brett Kulak (1)5–1
- P36:01Devon Toews Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (2), Gabriel Landeskog (2)4–1
- P33:13Nicolas Roy Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Artturi Lehkonen (2), Sam Malinski (1)3–1
- P213:43Joel Edmundson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Adrian Kempe (1), Alex Laferriere (4)2–1
- P25:48Cale Makar Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–0
- P113:13Nathan MacKinnon Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Nazem Kadri (2), Gabriel Landeskog (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:13Nathan MacKinnon Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Nazem Kadri (2), Gabriel Landeskog (1)COL 1 – 0 LA · COL 60% → 75% +15COL 60% → 75%+15 pts
- P25:48Cale Makar Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: noneCOL 2 – 0 LA · COL 76% → 88% +12COL 76% → 88%+12 pts
- P213:43Joel Edmundson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Adrian Kempe (1), Alex Laferriere (4)COL 2 – 1 LA · LA 10% → 23% +13LA 10% → 23%+13 pts
- P33:13Nicolas Roy Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Artturi Lehkonen (2), Sam Malinski (1)COL 3 – 1 LA · COL 80% → 94% +14COL 80% → 94%+14 pts
- P36:01Devon Toews Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (2), Gabriel Landeskog (2)COL 4 – 1 LA · COL 95% → >99% +4COL 95% → >99%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- COL 62%
- ML COL -180 / LA +150
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.4 pts
- COL: Elo 63.0%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- COL -161
- LA +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.1 – 2.4 LA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1595 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +11 | +2 | COL: Scott Wedgewood: team allows 0.28 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · LA: Anton Forsberg: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +92 Elo | COL 63.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 59.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 60.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 323.7 | Goals scored | 2.729th of 32 |
| 1st of 322.5 | Goals allowed | 3.012th of 32 |
| 1st of 32+1.2 | Margin | −0.321st of 32 |
| 2nd of 3256.3% | Shot share | 50.8%12th of 32 |
| 1st of 3291.4% | Save percentage | 89.9%13th of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 1st of 3229–12 | Road vs home | 15–2629th of 32 |
| 31st of 321495 | Opponent Elo | 149628th of 32 |
| 1st of 321595 | Elo rating | 147723rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  LA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 43–42 | 32–53 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 42–42 | 11–41 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 21–12 |
| Overs–unders | 36–49 | 39–46 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 10–2 LA in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 12.
- Apr 23COL 4 @ LA 2PlayoffsPicked COL 59%Hit
- Apr 21LA 1 @ COL 2PlayoffsPicked COL 70%Hit
- Apr 19LA 1 @ COL 2PlayoffsPicked COL 71%Hit
- Mar 2COL 4 @ LA 2Picked COL 62%Hit
- Dec 29LA 2 @ COL 5Picked COL 66%Hit
- Oct 7COL 4 @ LA 1Picked COL 52%Hit
- Apr 12COL 4 @ LA 5Picked LA 62%Hit
- Mar 27LA 0 @ COL 4Picked COL 60%Hit