Colorado Avalanche at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Artturi LehkonenGoals1
- Artturi LehkonenAssists1
- Artturi LehkonenPoints2
Kings- Trevor MooreGoals1
- Alex LaferriereAssists2
- Alex LaferrierePoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:42Brock Nelson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–2
- P315:57Adrian Kempe Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Artemi Panarin (1), Alex Laferriere (3)3–2
- P37:39Artturi Lehkonen Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–1
- P212:12Cale Makar Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Devon Toews (2), Artturi Lehkonen (1)2–1
- P25:55Trevor Moore Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Quinton Byfield (2), Alex Laferriere (2)1–1
- P15:29Gabriel Landeskog Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Nicolas Roy (1), Josh Manson (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:29Gabriel Landeskog Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Nicolas Roy (1), Josh Manson (2)COL 1 – 0 LA · COL 59% → 73% +14COL 59% → 73%+14 pts
- P25:55Trevor Moore Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Quinton Byfield (2), Alex Laferriere (2)COL 1 – 1 LA · LA 25% → 43% +18LA 25% → 43%+18 pts
- P212:12Cale Makar Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Devon Toews (2), Artturi Lehkonen (1)COL 2 – 1 LA · COL 56% → 76% +19COL 56% → 76%+19 pts
- P37:39Artturi Lehkonen Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: noneCOL 3 – 1 LA · COL 82% → 96% +14COL 82% → 96%+14 pts
- P315:57Adrian Kempe Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Artemi Panarin (1), Alex Laferriere (3)COL 3 – 2 LA · LA <1% → 7% +7LA <1% → 7%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- COL 59%
- ML COL -162 / LA +136
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.9 pts
- COL: Elo 62.2%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- COL -146
- LA +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.0 – 2.5 LA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1592 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +12 | +3 | COL: Scott Wedgewood: team allows 0.31 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · LA: Anton Forsberg: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +87 Elo | COL 62.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 59.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 59.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 323.7 | Goals scored | 2.729th of 32 |
| 1st of 322.5 | Goals allowed | 3.012th of 32 |
| 1st of 32+1.2 | Margin | −0.321st of 32 |
| 2nd of 3256.3% | Shot share | 50.8%12th of 32 |
| 1st of 3291.4% | Save percentage | 89.9%13th of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 1st of 3229–12 | Road vs home | 15–2629th of 32 |
| 31st of 321495 | Opponent Elo | 149528th of 32 |
| 1st of 321592 | Elo rating | 148022nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  LA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 42–42 | 32–52 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 41–42 | 11–41 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 21–11 |
| Overs–unders | 35–49 | 38–46 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 0–10 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 9–2 LA in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 11.