Seattle Kraken at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken
Avalanche- Parker KellyGoals1
- Valeri NichushkinAssists2
- Valeri NichushkinPoints2
Scoring summary
- P312:19Parker Kelly Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Cale Makar (59), Valeri Nichushkin (32)0–2
- P217:38Nick Blankenburg Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Brent Burns (23), Valeri Nichushkin (31)0–1
Turning points
The 2 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P217:38Nick Blankenburg Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Brent Burns (23), Valeri Nichushkin (31)SEA 0 – 1 COL · COL 60% → 80% +20COL 60% → 80%+20 pts
- P312:19Parker Kelly Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Cale Makar (59), Valeri Nichushkin (32)SEA 0 – 2 COL · COL 88% → 99% +11COL 88% → 99%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- COL 66%
- ML SEA +180 / COL -218
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 77%
- Ratings vs. market
- +11.7 pts
- COL: Elo 77.4%, market 65.7%
- Fair odds
- COL -192
- SEA +192 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 2.8 – 3.7 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1449 | 1588 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | SEA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +12 | SEA: Victor Ostman (no track record yet) · COL: Scott Wedgewood: team allows 0.29 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +214 Elo | COL 77.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 74.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 75.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 65.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.71st of 32 |
| 23rd of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 2.51st of 32 |
| 27th of 32−0.4 | Margin | +1.21st of 32 |
| 28th of 3246.6% | Shot share | 56.3%2nd of 32 |
| 10th of 3290.2% | Save percentage | 91.3%1st of 32 |
| 27th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 29th of 3215–25 | Road vs home | 25–155th of 32 |
| 24th of 321497 | Opponent Elo | 149628th of 32 |
| 29th of 321449 | Elo rating | 15881st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 47–34 | 41–40 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–7 | 40–40 |
| Underdog | 41–27 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 36–45 | 35–46 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 1–7 COL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.