Colorado Avalanche at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Gabriel LandeskogGoals1
- Cale MakarAssists3
- Cale MakarPoints3
Flames- Blake ColemanGoals1
- Mikael BacklundAssists1
- Blake ColemanPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:43Nathan MacKinnon Goal (53) Wrist Shot, assists: Cale Makar (58), Martin Necas (62)3–1
- P315:07Gabriel Landeskog Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Brett Kulak (11), Cale Makar (57)2–1
- P211:25Artturi Lehkonen Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Cale Makar (56), Sam Malinski (32)1–1
- P27:22Blake Coleman Goal (20) Tip-In, assists: Mikael Backlund (26)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P27:22Blake Coleman Goal (20) Tip-In, assists: Mikael Backlund (26)COL 0 – 1 CGY · CGY 44% → 63% +19CGY 44% → 63%+19 pts
- P211:25Artturi Lehkonen Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Cale Makar (56), Sam Malinski (32)COL 1 – 1 CGY · COL 35% → 56% +21COL 35% → 56%+21 pts
- P315:07Gabriel Landeskog Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Brett Kulak (11), Cale Makar (57)COL 2 – 1 CGY · COL 52% → 91% +39COL 52% → 91%+39 pts
- P319:43Nathan MacKinnon Goal (53) Wrist Shot, assists: Cale Makar (58), Martin Necas (62)COL 3 – 1 CGY · COL >99% → 100% +0COL >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- COL 58%
- ML COL -155 / CGY +130
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.5 pts
- COL: Elo 58.8%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- COL -140
- CGY +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.5 – 3.0 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1585 | 1454 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | COL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −6 | −2 | COL: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.16 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +62 Elo | COL 58.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 59.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 59.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 323.7 | Goals scored | 2.631st of 32 |
| 1st of 322.5 | Goals allowed | 3.222nd of 32 |
| 1st of 32+1.2 | Margin | −0.630th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3256.3% | Shot share | 48.6%24th of 32 |
| 1st of 3291.2% | Save percentage | 90.2%11th of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 32 |
| 1st of 3228–12 | Road vs home | 22–1710th of 32 |
| 28th of 321496 | Opponent Elo | 149722nd of 32 |
| 1st of 321585 | Elo rating | 145428th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 40–40 | 44–36 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 39–40 | 9–8 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 35–28 |
| Overs–unders | 35–45 | 41–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 7–1 CGY in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.