Los Angeles Kings at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Quinton ByfieldGoals1
- Trevor MooreAssists1
- Quinton ByfieldPoints1
Flames- Zayne ParekhGoals1
- Zach WhitecloudAssists2
- Zach WhitecloudPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:20Joel Farabee Goal (20) Backhand, assists: Zach Whitecloud (15)1–3
- P36:08Zayne Parekh Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Whitecloud (14), Ryan Strome (13)1–2
- P26:43Quinton Byfield Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Trevor Moore (19), Alex Laferriere (23)1–1
- P25:21Morgan Frost Goal (22) Tip-In, assists: Matvei Gridin (14), Matt Coronato (27)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P25:21Morgan Frost Goal (22) Tip-In, assists: Matvei Gridin (14), Matt Coronato (27)LA 0 – 1 CGY · CGY 42% → 61% +19CGY 42% → 61%+19 pts
- P26:43Quinton Byfield Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Trevor Moore (19), Alex Laferriere (23)LA 1 – 1 CGY · LA 39% → 58% +19LA 39% → 58%+19 pts
- P36:08Zayne Parekh Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Whitecloud (14), Ryan Strome (13)LA 1 – 2 CGY · CGY 45% → 73% +29CGY 45% → 73%+29 pts
- P319:20Joel Farabee Goal (20) Backhand, assists: Zach Whitecloud (15)LA 1 – 3 CGY · CGY >99% → >99% +0CGY >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- LA 61%
- ML LA -175 / CGY +145
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.0 pts
- LA: Elo 50.0%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- LA -156
- CGY +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 3.6 – 2.9 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1451 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +3 | LA: Anton Forsberg: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · CGY: Arsenii Sergeev (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | CGY 0 Elo | CGY 50.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 52.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LA 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 2.632nd of 32 |
| 12th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.222nd of 32 |
| 21st of 32−0.2 | Margin | −0.630th of 32 |
| 12th of 3250.7% | Shot share | 48.5%23rd of 32 |
| 13th of 3289.9% | Save percentage | 90.2%7th of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 32 |
| 14th of 3220–20 | Road vs home | 22–1813th of 32 |
| 28th of 321496 | Opponent Elo | 149821st of 32 |
| 21st of 321486 | Elo rating | 145128th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LA |  CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 30–51 | 44–37 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 11–40 | 9–8 |
| Underdog | 19–11 | 35–29 |
| Overs–unders | 38–43 | 41–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LA 3–7 CGY in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.