Los Angeles Kings at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Artemi PanarinGoals1
- Brandt ClarkeAssists1
- Artemi PanarinPoints1
Avalanche- Artturi LehkonenGoals1
- Nathan MacKinnonAssists1
- Artturi LehkonenPoints1
Scoring summary
- P317:38Artemi Panarin Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Laferriere (1), Brandt Clarke (1)1–2
- P35:50Logan O'Connor Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Drury (1)0–2
- P215:29Artturi Lehkonen Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (1)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P215:29Artturi Lehkonen Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (1)LA 0 – 1 COL · COL 64% → 82% +18COL 64% → 82%+18 pts
- P35:50Logan O'Connor Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Drury (1)LA 0 – 2 COL · COL 85% → 96% +11COL 85% → 96%+11 pts
- P317:38Artemi Panarin Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Laferriere (1), Brandt Clarke (1)LA 1 – 2 COL · LA <1% → 3% +3LA <1% → 3%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- COL 71%
- ML LA +235 / COL -290
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.7 pts
- COL: Elo 70.6%, market 71.4%
- Fair odds
- COL -249
- LA +249 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 2.1 – 3.4 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1590 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +13 | LA: Anton Forsberg: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · COL: Scott Wedgewood: team allows 0.31 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +153 Elo | COL 70.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 58.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 60.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 71.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 3.71st of 32 |
| 12th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.51st of 32 |
| 21st of 32−0.3 | Margin | +1.21st of 32 |
| 12th of 3250.8% | Shot share | 56.3%2nd of 32 |
| 13th of 3289.9% | Save percentage | 91.4%1st of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 14th of 3220–21 | Road vs home | 26–153rd of 32 |
| 28th of 321495 | Opponent Elo | 149531st of 32 |
| 22nd of 321482 | Elo rating | 15901st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LA |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 30–52 | 42–40 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 11–41 | 41–40 |
| Underdog | 19–11 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 38–44 | 35–47 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LA 2–7 COL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 9.