Dallas Stars at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Mavrik BourqueGoals1
- Michael BuntingAssists1
- Mavrik BourquePoints1
Wild- Quinn HughesGoals2
- Quinn HughesAssists1
- Quinn HughesPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:45Matt Boldy Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–5
- P318:29Matt Boldy Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–4
- P310:38Quinn Hughes Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Faber (3), Mats Zuccarello (4)2–3
- P217:02Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Quinn Hughes (6)2–2
- P216:08Mavrik Bourque Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Bunting (1), Ilya Lyubushkin (1)2–1
- P27:01Wyatt Johnston Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (6), Matt Duchene (7)1–1
- P16:23Quinn Hughes Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Marcus Foligno (1), Nico Sturm (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:23Quinn Hughes Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Marcus Foligno (1), Nico Sturm (2)DAL 0 – 1 MIN · MIN 53% → 68% +15MIN 53% → 68%+15 pts
- P27:01Wyatt Johnston Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (6), Matt Duchene (7)DAL 1 – 1 MIN · DAL 29% → 48% +19DAL 29% → 48%+19 pts
- P216:08Mavrik Bourque Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Bunting (1), Ilya Lyubushkin (1)DAL 2 – 1 MIN · DAL 48% → 70% +22DAL 48% → 70%+22 pts
- P217:02Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Quinn Hughes (6)DAL 2 – 2 MIN · MIN 29% → 52% +23MIN 29% → 52%+23 pts
- P310:38Quinn Hughes Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Faber (3), Mats Zuccarello (4)DAL 2 – 3 MIN · MIN 51% → 83% +32MIN 51% → 83%+32 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Wild 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 53%
- ML DAL +105 / MIN -125
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.2 pts
- MIN: Elo 53.5%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- MIN -114
- DAL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 2.7 – 2.8 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1553 | 1538 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +2 | DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · MIN: Jesper Wallstedt: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +24 Elo | MIN 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 55.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 55.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.311th of 32 |
| 2nd of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 2.94th of 32 |
| 4th of 32+0.6 | Margin | +0.46th of 32 |
| 20th of 3249.2% | Shot share | 49.8%18th of 32 |
| 9th of 3290.2% | Save percentage | 90.8%2nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3224–17 | Road vs home | 23–1811th of 32 |
| 25th of 321497 | Opponent Elo | 149627th of 32 |
| 5th of 321553 | Elo rating | 15386th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 35–52 | 43–44 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 19–49 | 14–36 |
| Underdog | 16–3 | 29–8 |
| Overs–unders | 45–42 | 49–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 9–7 MIN in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 16.
- Apr 28MIN 4 @ DAL 2PlayoffsPicked DAL 53%Miss
- Apr 25DAL 2 @ MIN 3PlayoffsPicked MIN 54%Hit
- Apr 22DAL 4 @ MIN 3PlayoffsPicked MIN 55%Miss
- Apr 20MIN 2 @ DAL 4PlayoffsPicked DAL 56%Hit
- Apr 18MIN 6 @ DAL 1PlayoffsPicked DAL 53%Miss
- Apr 9MIN 4 @ DAL 5Picked DAL 53%Hit
- Mar 21DAL 1 @ MIN 2Picked DAL 55%Miss
- Dec 11DAL 2 @ MIN 5Picked DAL 54%Miss