Minnesota Wild at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Quinn HughesGoals1
- Quinn HughesAssists2
- Quinn HughesPoints3
Avalanche- Cale MakarGoals2
- Devon ToewsAssists3
- Devon ToewsPoints4
Scoring summary
- P317:52Nathan MacKinnon Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Artturi Lehkonen (3)6–9
- P317:06Cale Makar Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Devon Toews (5), Martin Necas (5)6–8
- P316:01Mats Zuccarello Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Matt Boldy (4), Quinn Hughes (8)6–7
- P35:43Nazem Kadri Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Ross Colton (1), Devon Toews (4)5–7
- P33:21Cale Makar Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (4), Gabriel Landeskog (3)5–6
- P218:04Devon Toews Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Valeri Nichushkin (2), Sam Malinski (2)5–5
- P216:55Marcus Foligno Goal (2) Backhand, assists: none5–4
- P212:43Quinn Hughes Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Danila Yurov (1)4–4
- P26:45Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Yakov Trenin (2), Michael McCarron (1)3–4
- P24:16Nick Blankenburg Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Valeri Nichushkin (1), Cale Makar (1)2–4
- P116:04Ryan Hartman Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (7), Kirill Kaprizov (8)2–3
- P115:02Marcus Johansson Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: none1–3
- P113:13Artturi Lehkonen Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (3), Martin Necas (4)0–3
- P112:04Jack Drury Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Logan O'Connor (1)0–2
- P111:12Sam Malinski Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Martin Necas (3), Devon Toews (3)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:12Sam Malinski Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Martin Necas (3), Devon Toews (3)MIN 0 – 1 COL · COL 63% → 77% +14COL 63% → 77%+14 pts
- P212:43Quinn Hughes Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Danila Yurov (1)MIN 4 – 4 COL · MIN 21% → 40% +19MIN 21% → 40%+19 pts
- P216:55Marcus Foligno Goal (2) Backhand, assists: noneMIN 5 – 4 COL · MIN 41% → 64% +23MIN 41% → 64%+23 pts
- P218:04Devon Toews Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Valeri Nichushkin (2), Sam Malinski (2)MIN 5 – 5 COL · COL 35% → 59% +24COL 35% → 59%+24 pts
- P33:21Cale Makar Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (4), Gabriel Landeskog (3)MIN 5 – 6 COL · COL 58% → 81% +24COL 58% → 81%+24 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- COL 64%
- ML MIN +170 / COL -205
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.6 pts
- COL: Elo 63.9%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- COL -181
- MIN +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 2.8 – 3.7 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1543 | 1599 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +11 | MIN: Jesper Wallstedt: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) · COL: Scott Wedgewood: team allows 0.28 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +99 Elo | COL 63.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 65.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 65.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.71st of 32 |
| 4th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 2.51st of 32 |
| 6th of 32+0.4 | Margin | +1.21st of 32 |
| 18th of 3249.8% | Shot share | 56.3%2nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 3290.8% | Save percentage | 91.4%1st of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 7th of 3223–18 | Road vs home | 26–153rd of 32 |
| 27th of 321496 | Opponent Elo | 149430th of 32 |
| 6th of 321543 | Elo rating | 15991st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 44–44 | 44–42 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 15–36 | 43–42 |
| Underdog | 29–8 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 50–38 | 37–49 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 4–8 COL in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 12.