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Minnesota Wild at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast

Final/OTCOL wins series 4-1

Away

Wild

46-24-12

3–4

at

Home

Avalanche

55-16-11

MIN 33%COL 67%

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Ball Arena · TNT, truTV, HBO Max

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.

COL favored MIN favored7 scoring plays
P1P2P3OTCOL50%MIN

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Wild
Avalanche

Scoring summary

  • OT3:52Brett Kulak Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Martin Necas (10), Parker Kelly (1)3–4
  • P318:37Nathan MacKinnon Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Martin Necas (9), Brent Burns (3)3–3
  • P316:27Jack Drury Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Devon Toews (6), Nicolas Roy (3)3–2
  • P211:00Parker Kelly Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Brent Burns (2), Brett Kulak (4)3–1
  • P115:56Nick Foligno Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Nico Sturm (4), Matt Boldy (6)3–0
  • P111:03Nick Foligno Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Nico Sturm (3), Kirill Kaprizov (11)2–0
  • P10:34Marcus Johansson Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (5), Quinn Hughes (11)1–0

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P10:34Marcus Johansson Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (5), Quinn Hughes (11)MIN 1 – 0 COL · MIN 33% → 47% +14
  2. P111:03Nick Foligno Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Nico Sturm (3), Kirill Kaprizov (11)MIN 2 – 0 COL · MIN 50% → 66% +16
  3. P115:56Nick Foligno Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Nico Sturm (4), Matt Boldy (6)MIN 3 – 0 COL · MIN 68% → 82% +13
  4. P318:37Nathan MacKinnon Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Martin Necas (9), Brent Burns (3)MIN 3 – 3 COL · COL <1% → 53% +52
  5. OT3:52Brett Kulak Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Martin Necas (10), Parker Kelly (1)MIN 3 – 4 COL · COL 52% → >99% +47

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Avalanche 67%

SolidHit
MIN 33%COL 67%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.

Market
COL 67%
ML MIN +190 / COL -230
Pre-line forecast
COL 64%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
COL 63%
Ratings vs. market
−3.8 pts
COL: Elo 63.1%, market 66.9%
Fair odds
COL -202
MIN +202 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
MIN 2.8 – 3.7 COL
Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorMINCOLWhy
Team rating15381603Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies−3−11MIN: Jesper Wallstedt: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) · COL: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.27 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsCOL +93 EloCOL 63.1%
Market-implied ratingsCOL 64.7%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastCOL 64.4%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastCOL 66.9%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

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Minnesota Wild and Colorado Avalanche compared, with each team's league rank
MINStatCOL
11th of 323.3Goals scored3.71st of 32
4th of 322.9Goals allowed2.51st of 32
6th of 32+0.4Margin+1.21st of 32
18th of 3249.8%Shot share56.3%2nd of 32
2nd of 3290.8%Save percentage91.4%1st of 32
8th of 326–4Last 107–32nd of 32
7th of 3223–18Road vs home26–153rd of 32
27th of 321496Opponent Elo149431st of 32
7th of 321538Elo rating16031st of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

WildAvalanche
14501500155016001650league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonMINCOL
Puck line45–4747–43
Last 104–67–3
Favorite15–3646–43
Underdog30–111–0
Overs–unders53–3940–50
Overs–unders, last 108–25–5

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

MIN 5–11 COL in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 16.