Colorado Avalanche at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Nathan MacKinnonGoals1
- Gabriel LandeskogAssists1
- Nathan MacKinnonPoints1
Wild- Kirill KaprizovGoals1
- Kirill KaprizovAssists2
- Kirill KaprizovPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:56Matt Boldy Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Faber (5)1–5
- P213:31Brock Faber Goal (4) Deflected, assists: Vladimir Tarasenko (2), Michael McCarron (2)1–4
- P213:11Nathan MacKinnon Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Gabriel Landeskog (5), Nazem Kadri (4)1–3
- P24:23Ryan Hartman Goal (3) Batted, assists: Mats Zuccarello (7), Kirill Kaprizov (10)0–3
- P116:44Quinn Hughes Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Mats Zuccarello (6), Kirill Kaprizov (9)0–2
- P115:11Kirill Kaprizov Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Faber (4), Quinn Hughes (9)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P115:11Kirill Kaprizov Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Faber (4), Quinn Hughes (9)COL 0 – 1 MIN · MIN 46% → 63% +17MIN 46% → 63%+17 pts
- P116:44Quinn Hughes Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Mats Zuccarello (6), Kirill Kaprizov (9)COL 0 – 2 MIN · MIN 63% → 78% +15MIN 63% → 78%+15 pts
- P24:23Ryan Hartman Goal (3) Batted, assists: Mats Zuccarello (7), Kirill Kaprizov (10)COL 0 – 3 MIN · MIN 81% → 91% +10MIN 81% → 91%+10 pts
- P213:11Nathan MacKinnon Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Gabriel Landeskog (5), Nazem Kadri (4)COL 1 – 3 MIN · COL 6% → 15% +10COL 6% → 15%+10 pts
- P213:31Brock Faber Goal (4) Deflected, assists: Vladimir Tarasenko (2), Michael McCarron (2)COL 1 – 4 MIN · MIN 85% → 94% +9MIN 85% → 94%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- COL 54%
- ML COL -130 / MIN +110
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.0 pts
- COL: Elo 56.3%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- COL -119
- MIN +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.4 – 3.1 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1605 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | −4 | COL: Scott Wedgewood: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · MIN: Jesper Wallstedt: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +44 Elo | COL 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 54.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 55.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 323.7 | Goals scored | 3.311th of 32 |
| 1st of 322.5 | Goals allowed | 2.94th of 32 |
| 1st of 32+1.2 | Margin | +0.46th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3256.3% | Shot share | 49.8%18th of 32 |
| 1st of 3291.4% | Save percentage | 90.8%2nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 1st of 3229–12 | Road vs home | 23–1811th of 32 |
| 31st of 321494 | Opponent Elo | 149627th of 32 |
| 1st of 321605 | Elo rating | 15367th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 46–42 | 44–46 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 45–42 | 15–36 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 29–10 |
| Overs–unders | 39–49 | 52–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 10–4 MIN in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 14.
- May 5MIN 2 @ COL 5PlayoffsPicked COL 64%Hit
- May 3MIN 6 @ COL 9PlayoffsPicked COL 64%Hit
- Mar 8MIN 2 @ COL 3Picked COL 62%Hit
- Feb 26MIN 5 @ COL 2Picked COL 58%Miss
- Dec 21COL 5 @ MIN 1Picked COL 60%Hit
- Nov 28COL 2 @ MIN 3Picked COL 63%Miss
- Mar 11COL 1 @ MIN 2Picked COL 59%Miss
- Feb 28MIN 2 @ COL 5Picked COL 74%Hit