Colorado Avalanche at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Brock NelsonGoals1
- Martin NecasAssists2
- Martin NecasPoints2
Wild- Nico SturmGoals1
- Vladimir TarasenkoAssists1
- Nico SturmPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:52Brock Nelson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: none5–2
- P319:27Nathan MacKinnon Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Martin Necas (8)4–2
- P311:32Parker Kelly Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Jack Drury (2)3–2
- P39:15Nico Sturm Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (10)2–2
- P36:56Ross Colton Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nicolas Roy (2)2–1
- P26:08Nazem Kadri Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Martin Necas (7)1–1
- P19:46Danila Yurov Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Brock Faber (6), Vladimir Tarasenko (3)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:46Danila Yurov Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Brock Faber (6), Vladimir Tarasenko (3)COL 0 – 1 MIN · MIN 42% → 58% +16MIN 42% → 58%+16 pts
- P26:08Nazem Kadri Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Martin Necas (7)COL 1 – 1 MIN · COL 37% → 56% +19COL 37% → 56%+19 pts
- P36:56Ross Colton Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nicolas Roy (2)COL 2 – 1 MIN · COL 54% → 81% +27COL 54% → 81%+27 pts
- P39:15Nico Sturm Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (10)COL 2 – 2 MIN · MIN 17% → 46% +29MIN 17% → 46%+29 pts
- P311:32Parker Kelly Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Jack Drury (2)COL 3 – 2 MIN · COL 53% → 85% +32COL 53% → 85%+32 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- COL 58%
- ML COL -155 / MIN +130
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.9 pts
- COL: Elo 51.4%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- COL -140
- MIN +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.5 – 3.0 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1599 | 1542 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −13 | −1 | COL: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.32 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · MIN: Jesper Wallstedt: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +10 Elo | COL 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 50.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 323.7 | Goals scored | 3.311th of 32 |
| 1st of 322.5 | Goals allowed | 2.94th of 32 |
| 1st of 32+1.2 | Margin | +0.46th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3256.3% | Shot share | 49.8%18th of 32 |
| 1st of 3291.4% | Save percentage | 90.8%2nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 1st of 3229–12 | Road vs home | 23–1811th of 32 |
| 30th of 321494 | Opponent Elo | 149627th of 32 |
| 1st of 321599 | Elo rating | 15427th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 46–43 | 45–46 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 45–43 | 15–36 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 30–10 |
| Overs–unders | 39–50 | 52–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 10–5 MIN in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 15.
- May 9COL 1 @ MIN 5PlayoffsPicked COL 54%Miss
- May 5MIN 2 @ COL 5PlayoffsPicked COL 64%Hit
- May 3MIN 6 @ COL 9PlayoffsPicked COL 64%Hit
- Mar 8MIN 2 @ COL 3Picked COL 62%Hit
- Feb 26MIN 5 @ COL 2Picked COL 58%Miss
- Dec 21COL 5 @ MIN 1Picked COL 60%Hit
- Nov 28COL 2 @ MIN 3Picked COL 63%Miss
- Mar 11COL 1 @ MIN 2Picked COL 59%Miss