Anaheim Ducks at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Olen ZellwegerGoals1
- Mason McTavishAssists2
- Mason McTavishPoints2
Golden Knights- Pavel DorofeyevGoals2
- Jack EichelAssists2
- Pavel DorofeyevPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT4:10Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (14)2–3
- P316:55Olen Zellweger Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Cutter Gauthier (8), Mason McTavish (5)2–2
- P34:48Tomas Hertl Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Brandon Saad (1), Rasmus Andersson (2)1–2
- P116:13Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Tomas Hertl (3), Jack Eichel (13)1–1
- P112:36Beckett Sennecke Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Cutter Gauthier (7), Mason McTavish (4)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:36Beckett Sennecke Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Cutter Gauthier (7), Mason McTavish (4)ANA 1 – 0 VGK · ANA 42% → 58% +16ANA 42% → 58%+16 pts
- P116:13Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Tomas Hertl (3), Jack Eichel (13)ANA 1 – 1 VGK · VGK 41% → 58% +17VGK 41% → 58%+17 pts
- P34:48Tomas Hertl Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Brandon Saad (1), Rasmus Andersson (2)ANA 1 – 2 VGK · VGK 55% → 80% +25VGK 55% → 80%+25 pts
- P316:55Olen Zellweger Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Cutter Gauthier (8), Mason McTavish (5)ANA 2 – 2 VGK · ANA 5% → 48% +43ANA 5% → 48%+43 pts
- OT4:10Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (14)ANA 2 – 3 VGK · VGK 51% → >99% +49VGK 51% → >99%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 59%
- ML ANA +136 / VGK -162
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.2 pts
- VGK: Elo 61.6%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- VGK -146
- ANA +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 3.0 – 3.5 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +2 | ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · VGK: Carter Hart: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +82 Elo | VGK 61.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 58.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 59.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.214th of 32 |
| 29th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.013th of 32 |
| 19th of 32−0.2 | Margin | +0.213th of 32 |
| 6th of 3252.1% | Shot share | 54.3%3rd of 32 |
| 30th of 3288.3% | Save percentage | 88.4%28th of 32 |
| 27th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 18th of 3219–22 | Road vs home | 20–2121st of 32 |
| 29th of 321495 | Opponent Elo | 149430th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321477 | Elo rating | 152310th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ANA |  VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 42–50 | 39–53 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–28 | 23–51 |
| Underdog | 36–22 | 16–2 |
| Overs–unders | 54–38 | 47–45 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ANA 8–7 VGK in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 15.
- May 10VGK 3 @ ANA 4PlayoffsPicked ANA 53%Hit
- May 8VGK 6 @ ANA 2PlayoffsPicked VGK 52%Hit
- May 6ANA 3 @ VGK 1PlayoffsPicked VGK 58%Miss
- May 4ANA 1 @ VGK 3PlayoffsPicked VGK 61%Hit
- Feb 1VGK 3 @ ANA 4Picked ANA 52%Hit
- Nov 22VGK 3 @ ANA 4Picked VGK 57%Miss
- Nov 8ANA 4 @ VGK 3Picked VGK 67%Miss
- Dec 23ANA 1 @ VGK 3Picked VGK 72%Hit