Vegas Golden Knights at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Mitch MarnerGoals3
- Mitch MarnerAssists1
- Mitch MarnerPoints4
Ducks- Beckett SenneckeGoals1
- Mikael GranlundAssists1
- Chris KreiderPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:04Brett Howden Goal (6) Backhand, assists: none6–2
- P315:09Chris Kreider Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Troy Terry (7), Leo Carlsson (6)5–2
- P36:30Beckett Sennecke Goal (3) Poke, assists: Alex Killorn (4), Mikael Granlund (5)5–1
- P217:56Mitch Marner Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: William Karlsson (1), Ivan Barbashev (5)5–0
- P29:19Mitch Marner Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Shea Theodore (4), Brett Howden (2)4–0
- P119:55Mitch Marner Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Dorofeyev (2), Colton Sissons (3)3–0
- P112:13Brayden McNabb Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (7)2–0
- P11:06Shea Theodore Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (10), Mark Stone (4)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:06Shea Theodore Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (10), Mark Stone (4)VGK 1 – 0 ANA · VGK 52% → 66% +14VGK 52% → 66%+14 pts
- P112:13Brayden McNabb Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (7)VGK 2 – 0 ANA · VGK 67% → 80% +13VGK 67% → 80%+13 pts
- P119:55Mitch Marner Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Dorofeyev (2), Colton Sissons (3)VGK 3 – 0 ANA · VGK 82% → 92% +9VGK 82% → 92%+9 pts
- P29:19Mitch Marner Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Shea Theodore (4), Brett Howden (2)VGK 4 – 0 ANA · VGK 94% → 98% +4VGK 94% → 98%+4 pts
- P217:56Mitch Marner Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: William Karlsson (1), Ivan Barbashev (5)VGK 5 – 0 ANA · VGK >99% → >99% +1VGK >99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 52%
- ML VGK -118 / ANA -102
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.9 pts
- VGK: Elo 50.8%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- VGK -107
- ANA +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 3.3 – 3.2 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +3 | VGK: Carter Hart: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) · ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +5 Elo | VGK 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 50.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 51.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.310th of 32 |
| 13th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.529th of 32 |
| 13th of 32+0.2 | Margin | −0.219th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3254.3% | Shot share | 52.1%6th of 32 |
| 28th of 3288.4% | Save percentage | 88.3%30th of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 32 |
| 18th of 3219–22 | Road vs home | 24–178th of 32 |
| 30th of 321494 | Opponent Elo | 149529th of 32 |
| 10th of 321520 | Elo rating | 147922nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VGK |  ANA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 37–53 | 42–48 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 22–51 | 6–27 |
| Underdog | 15–2 | 36–21 |
| Overs–unders | 45–45 | 52–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VGK 6–7 ANA in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 13.
- May 6ANA 3 @ VGK 1PlayoffsPicked VGK 58%Miss
- May 4ANA 1 @ VGK 3PlayoffsPicked VGK 61%Hit
- Feb 1VGK 3 @ ANA 4Picked ANA 52%Hit
- Nov 22VGK 3 @ ANA 4Picked VGK 57%Miss
- Nov 8ANA 4 @ VGK 3Picked VGK 67%Miss
- Dec 23ANA 1 @ VGK 3Picked VGK 72%Hit
- Dec 4VGK 4 @ ANA 1Picked VGK 57%Hit
- Nov 13VGK 3 @ ANA 2Picked VGK 67%Hit