Vegas Golden Knights at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Pavel DorofeyevGoals2
- Shea TheodoreAssists1
- Pavel DorofeyevPoints2
Ducks- Mikael GranlundGoals1
- Troy TerryAssists1
- Mikael GranlundPoints1
Scoring summary
- P313:32Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Andersson (3), Noah Hanifin (6)5–1
- P32:52Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (6)4–1
- P212:46Mikael Granlund Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Troy Terry (8), Leo Carlsson (7)3–1
- P117:19Shea Theodore Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Tomas Hertl (4)3–0
- P18:30Brett Howden Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (11)2–0
- P11:02Mitch Marner Goal (7) Between Legs, assists: William Karlsson (3), Shea Theodore (5)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:02Mitch Marner Goal (7) Between Legs, assists: William Karlsson (3), Shea Theodore (5)VGK 1 – 0 ANA · VGK 46% → 60% +15VGK 46% → 60%+15 pts
- P18:30Brett Howden Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (11)VGK 2 – 0 ANA · VGK 62% → 75% +14VGK 62% → 75%+14 pts
- P117:19Shea Theodore Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Tomas Hertl (4)VGK 3 – 0 ANA · VGK 78% → 89% +11VGK 78% → 89%+11 pts
- P212:46Mikael Granlund Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Troy Terry (8), Leo Carlsson (7)VGK 3 – 1 ANA · ANA 6% → 16% +10ANA 6% → 16%+10 pts
- P32:52Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (6)VGK 4 – 1 ANA · VGK 90% → 98% +7VGK 90% → 98%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Ducks 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- ANA 54%
- ML VGK +110 / ANA -130
- Pre-line forecast
- ANA 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ANA 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.6 pts
- ANA: Elo 47.7%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- ANA -119
- VGK +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 3.1 – 3.4 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1475 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +1 | VGK: Carter Hart: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) · ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +16 Elo | VGK 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ANA 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ANA 50.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ANA 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.310th of 32 |
| 13th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.529th of 32 |
| 13th of 32+0.2 | Margin | −0.219th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3254.3% | Shot share | 52.1%6th of 32 |
| 28th of 3288.4% | Save percentage | 88.3%30th of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 32 |
| 18th of 3219–22 | Road vs home | 24–178th of 32 |
| 30th of 321494 | Opponent Elo | 149529th of 32 |
| 10th of 321524 | Elo rating | 147524th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VGK |  ANA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 39–54 | 43–50 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 23–52 | 6–28 |
| Underdog | 16–2 | 37–22 |
| Overs–unders | 47–46 | 54–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VGK 8–8 ANA in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 16.
- May 12ANA 2 @ VGK 3PlayoffsPicked VGK 59%Hit
- May 10VGK 3 @ ANA 4PlayoffsPicked ANA 53%Hit
- May 8VGK 6 @ ANA 2PlayoffsPicked VGK 52%Hit
- May 6ANA 3 @ VGK 1PlayoffsPicked VGK 58%Miss
- May 4ANA 1 @ VGK 3PlayoffsPicked VGK 61%Hit
- Feb 1VGK 3 @ ANA 4Picked ANA 52%Hit
- Nov 22VGK 3 @ ANA 4Picked VGK 57%Miss
- Nov 8ANA 4 @ VGK 3Picked VGK 67%Miss