Vegas Golden Knights at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Brett HowdenGoals2
- Mitch MarnerAssists2
- Brett HowdenPoints2
Hurricanes- Mark JankowskiGoals1
- Shayne GostisbehereAssists2
- Shayne GostisbeherePoints2
Scoring summary
- OT3:56Seth Jarvis Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (6), Sebastian Aho (4)3–4
- P318:39Mark Stone Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Mitch Marner (17), Tomas Hertl (7)3–3
- P315:25Jordan Staal Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (5), Andrei Svechnikov (5)2–3
- P312:46Mark Jankowski Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: William Carrier (4), Eric Robinson (4)2–2
- P310:20Logan Stankoven Goal (10) Backhand, assists: none2–1
- P27:23Brett Howden Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (8), Noah Hanifin (7)2–0
- P113:33Brett Howden Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (16)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P27:23Brett Howden Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (8), Noah Hanifin (7)VGK 2 – 0 CAR · VGK 63% → 79% +17VGK 63% → 79%+17 pts
- P312:46Mark Jankowski Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: William Carrier (4), Eric Robinson (4)VGK 2 – 2 CAR · CAR 17% → 53% +37CAR 17% → 53%+37 pts
- P315:25Jordan Staal Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (5), Andrei Svechnikov (5)VGK 2 – 3 CAR · CAR 53% → 92% +39CAR 53% → 92%+39 pts
- P318:39Mark Stone Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Mitch Marner (17), Tomas Hertl (7)VGK 3 – 3 CAR · VGK <1% → 49% +48VGK <1% → 49%+48 pts
- OT3:56Seth Jarvis Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (6), Sebastian Aho (4)VGK 3 – 4 CAR · CAR 51% → >99% +48CAR 51% → >99%+48 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 59%
- ML VGK +136 / CAR -162
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.5 pts
- CAR: Elo 61.8%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- CAR -146
- VGK +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 2.5 – 3.0 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1549 | 1600 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +3 | VGK: Carter Hart: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · CAR: Frederik Andersen: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +84 Elo | CAR 61.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 62.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 62.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.62nd of 32 |
| 13th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.94th of 32 |
| 13th of 32+0.2 | Margin | +0.73rd of 32 |
| 3rd of 3254.3% | Shot share | 57.3%1st of 32 |
| 28th of 3288.4% | Save percentage | 88.6%26th of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 18th of 3219–22 | Road vs home | 29–121st of 32 |
| 32nd of 321493 | Opponent Elo | 149921st of 32 |
| 5th of 321549 | Elo rating | 16001st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VGK |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 44–55 | 40–56 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 23–53 | 33–54 |
| Underdog | 21–2 | 7–2 |
| Overs–unders | 49–50 | 49–47 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VGK 3–4 CAR in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.