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Colorado Avalanche at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast

FinalVGK wins series 4-0

Away

Avalanche

55-16-11

1–2

at

Home

Golden Knights

39-26-17

COL 50%VGK 50%

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T-Mobile Arena · ESPN

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.

VGK favored COL favored3 scoring plays
P1P2P3VGK50%COL

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Golden Knights

Scoring summary

  • P317:57Gabriel Landeskog Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Martin Necas (12), Nazem Kadri (6)1–2
  • P314:15Cole Smith Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Dylan Coghlan (2), Nic Dowd (1)0–2
  • P14:42Mark Stone Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden McNabb (3), Shea Theodore (7)0–1

Turning points

The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P14:42Mark Stone Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden McNabb (3), Shea Theodore (7)COL 0 – 1 VGK · VGK 50% → 65% +15
  2. P314:15Cole Smith Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Dylan Coghlan (2), Nic Dowd (1)COL 0 – 2 VGK · VGK 88% → >99% +11
  3. P317:57Gabriel Landeskog Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Martin Necas (12), Nazem Kadri (6)COL 1 – 2 VGK · COL <1% → 2% +2

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Golden Knights 50%

Toss-upHit
COL 50%VGK 50%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.

Market
VGK 50%
ML COL -110 / VGK -110
Pre-line forecast
VGK 48%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
VGK 51%
Ratings vs. market
+0.7 pts
VGK: Elo 50.7%, market 50.0%
Fair odds
VGK -100
COL -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
COL 3.3 – 3.3 VGK
Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorCOLVGKWhy
Team rating15911544Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies−11+5COL: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.28 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · VGK: Carter Hart: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsVGK +5 EloVGK 50.7%
Market-implied ratingsCOL 52.7%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastCOL 52.0%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastVGK 50.0%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Colorado Avalanche and Vegas Golden Knights compared, with each team's league rank
COLStatVGK
1st of 323.7Goals scored3.214th of 32
1st of 322.5Goals allowed3.013th of 32
1st of 32+1.2Margin+0.213th of 32
2nd of 3256.3%Shot share54.3%3rd of 32
1st of 3291.4%Save percentage88.4%28th of 32
2nd of 327–3Last 107–32nd of 32
1st of 3229–12Road vs home20–2121st of 32
30th of 321495Opponent Elo149432nd of 32
2nd of 321591Elo rating15447th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

AvalancheGolden Knights
14501500155016001650league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonCOLVGK
Puck line47–4743–54
Last 105–58–2
Favorite46–4723–52
Underdog1–020–2
Overs–unders42–5248–49
Overs–unders, last 107–33–7

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

COL 5–7 VGK in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 12.